Suburban Dissident

Mind and Brain

2010-02-04T14:19:00.002-05:00

One of the courses I am taking involves heavy reading on recent finding concerning the way our brains work and how that relates to traditional conceptions of the mind (a la the common Western philosophical distinction between mind and body). For example, the case can be made for how the root of our emotions are not amorphous feelings but actually an important part of how the brain functions in connection with the body. Similarly, there are social aspects to the brain. We have neurons in the brain that respond to social stimuli. Needless to say, this has been an intellectually interesting experience. (aside: if anyone knows of quality apologetic work that attempts to deal with these more recent findings, I would be interested to know about it. I was stunned by how unprepared I was to think about the implications of cognitive science for Christian belief.)

The reason this seems such an important question is in how the function of the brain may or may not relate to consciousness and what we would likely refer to as the soul. If the brain itself is mechanically responsible and/or linked to stimulating the sensations we have and even some of the thoughts that arise out of our subconscious, then where is the soul ultimately lodged? What role can it play and how does it all work?

To a certain extent, this isn’t a new problem. We have had, for as long as there has been faith, needed to deal with certain persons whose physical condition limits (or limits our access to) their cognitive ability. Brain damage is not a new concept and we know that when the wheels stop spinning properly upstairs, it changes the entirety of ones subjective experience. So what do we do about this?

Well, there are a few things I have concluded after four weeks of working on this: (1) there remains a significant gap between what scientists have discovered about the way the brain works and what needs to be accounted for given the way minds and society work, (2) there is still a difference, if not as much as a dichotomy, between mind and brain, and (3) there is an important underlying bias to the whole field of neuroscience.

The gap I am talking about has to do with the very nature of what science seems able to talk about. While neurology can find the parts of the brain that activate emotion, social sense, etc, they do so in a very basic way. While some neurologist (namely the ones I have been reading) seem to push for causal links between what our brain is like and how we act, it is not clear that things work that way. While we have the physical capacity for the things we experience (which in and of itself doesn’t sound like that novel a concept), our behavior and experience actually change the physical constitution of our brains. Though damaging parts of the brain seem to cut out certain functions (i.e. emoting, action-consequence mechanisms, etc.) it seems we might even be able to compensate for this. At best, neuroscience has found the basic mechanisms that are involved with how the brain functions and how they link to the mind; they do not explain the mind.

The second thing I realized is that, given the distance between what we know of the brain and how we experience the mind, while the two might not be distinct things, they are apparently not one thing either. We were talking about this in terms of something called “intersubjectivity.” The idea is that a person has intersubjective experience when they can understand/assume/feel from another person’s perspective. Literally, that they experience another as subject and not simply object. Recent work on something called “mirror neurons” point to a physical ability to experience intersubjectivity. When others around us emote, we can pick up on it at a pre-cognitive level (we feeling it without have to think about it). This is what is happening when a smiling baby elicits a similar response in an adult. There is actually something going on in the brain that recognizes the positive emotion and reflects it. But the problem we run into is that there is much more to intersubjectivity. As I wrote in a question for class: “This seems, in some way, to again dichotomize mind and brain by presenting the intersubjectivity of human minds as a tautology: you are only as intersubjectively attuned as you believe yourself to be?” We see this most clearly in cases where people dehumanize others (a mind action) and then feel no sympathy (apparently a brain action) when they treat others as less than human. There are two levels at play and the upper can overpower the lower. If we deny our intersubjective experience, we seem able to turn it off. This implies that, at best, the research we have done on the brain is far from melding mind and brain into one.

Lastly, there is an underlying belief that necessitates the outcomes mentioned above. Now, I am not just talking about the fact that most scientists would reject the notion of the soul and therefore never look for it in cognitive experience. My point is related, but not the same. When talking about the effect of one thing on another, we usually use the language of “causal direction” (i.e. X causes Y). Given the assumptions that most scientists have for how evolution must have worked in the development of our brains and how our minds are simply and outcome of that process, the causal direction must go from brain to mind. More specifically, the things that happen in the mind must be products of what is taking place in the brain. I will mitigate this by stating that the effect of the mind on the brain is accounted for (i.e. thinking bad thoughts or not developing your mind has physical consequences) but the mind must be accounted for as something that issues from the brain. Whether that is a justified position or not isn’t even important in understanding the simple fact that such a belief will determine the limits of what can be found in one’s scientific studies. Such assumptions of objectivity are the exact limiting factors that can fix a research paradigm in place, a la Kuhn.

This is not meant to debunk neuroscience. The work of science deals with fact. How those facts are interpreted (and they are interpreted) is what is at question. Regardless of whether I have this nailed down (and I likely don’t) this will hopefully raise good questions and an informed consideration of these questions is definitely needed.

Theology of Sociology

2009-11-30T10:00:00.001-05:00

Mead claims that the self can only emerge through interaction, that without language and socialization the self would never come to be. This prompts interesting questions: could we conceive of a person without language and who is never socialized? Would they, then, not have a self? What does that mean ontologically?

From a Christian perspective, this creates an interesting problem for it is hard to imagine the self in a way that seperates it from the Christian concept of the soul. One might even posit that the two are one and the same. Extending Mead’s argument, then, would raise the question, “If one has no language and is never socialized (ie. if they never interact with other people) would they then not have a soul? Is a soul something that develops in this way?” Good questions.

This becomes a problem only if we maintain that it is only inter-human interaction that leads to the development of the self (read: the soul). If that is not the case, then a rather remakable truth emerges. The existence and development of the soul (seperating those two functions so as not to claim that one could exist and yet not have a soul) depends on the fact that all souls interact, in their creation, with God. In the same way that the being of the Trinity is enhanced* and defined by its relational quality, so our being is enhanced and defined by our relationship with God. No one can avoid at least a minimal amount of relating to God – otherwise we could not exist.

This line of thinking does have interesting implications for conceptions of our need for and the working out of the Gospel. For example, though all people have at least that minimal required interaction with God necessary for our existence (perhaps common grace also figures into this concept as well), we all sever that connection and thus lost the source of interaction most crucial for the development and health of our soul. Salvation, then, could be conceived of as the reestablisment of that connection by which our souls can yet again develop as they ought, heaven becomes the fullest form of that interaction and thus the full blossoming of our self – our souls – through our interaction with God, hell is the punishment of eternal banishment from that presence through which our selves regress into near nothing – the death of the soul.

This all, mind you, is merely the consideration of a question and not meant to imply a definite understanding of a theology of sociology. However, it does raise the question as to whether such a venture might be, in some way, worthwhile.

*This is not to imply that God, in trinitarian form, is some how “better” than God in some other form, as if such a form were plausable option. God is by his nature both good and in trinity thus implying a completeness and absoluteness that could not be otherwise (ie. if God is good and is in trinity then any other form would neither be good nor would it be God). I use the term primarily to bridge the relational aspects of God and man.

Durkheim and Religious Belief

2009-11-16T16:11:00.002-05:00

Sociology, as a discipline, is not particularly friendly to religious faith. The framework of 'methodological atheism' makes it impossible to address the question of whether the things people believe in are actually true. In keeping with the desire to be a "science," sociologists admit that the reality of the objects of belief are beyond what we can measure and analyze. Or, it should be that we merely admit that and move one, whereas many are those who take the exclusion of the supernatural from the debate as a fitting opening to cut it out of our universe of possible realities. As students of the social, we look to root everything in the social.

Please remember that. It is a crucial fact. It is not that sociology is an unbiased discipline; it is a particularly biased one. Similar to how historians must conceive of the world leaving the role of God to the side, sociologist only bring in the supernatural to the extent that they are silent about it, omit it, or confuse it.

Take, for example, Durkheim's theories on the origins and functions of religion. Theorizing with the role of society in the place of supremacy, Durkheim doesn't try to overturn the ideas that notions of "the something greater than the individual" and divisions between the sacred/holy and the profane are not common to nearly all people; rather he re-roots them. The concept of God/the divine, he notes, is certainly rooted in a belief that there is something outside of the individual that is more powerful, more imposing, than he is, but that something is not the grandeur of nature, the stars, universe, or creation in general. Those views were common to evolutionary concepts of religion -man observes the "greater than himself" and conceives of the idea of deity. Durkheim changes the foundation point. The origin of that feeling is actually something greater than the individual: it is the social. As society wields some intangible power over the individual and his actions, often in ways imperceptible even to the most astute of observers, the individual absorbs the sensation of that power and thus is led to project the idea of deity. This is a clever little theoretical coup.

Durkheim's vision of the sacred is similarly intriguing. He again notes that there is a universal presence of concepts of the sacred - that all cultures and societies make separations between what is mundane and what is set apart as special, other, and revered. The otherness of the thing revered is reflected in the actions of separation and otherness that become ritualized parts of community religious life (and of social life in general).

On the surface, these are both quite intelligent arguments that make a lot of sense. But remember that, when approaching such arguments from a theistic, and in my case Christian, perspective, you don't accept the conclusions because you know you are playing with more cards than the scholar you are reading. What does that mean, practically? It means that, though Durkheim's mechanism may be quite useful, his premise makes this argument unconvincing. I can believe that the ritual action is crucial in the expression of sacredness in society or that society is the primary means through which divinity is expressed, but i am not bound to believe that sacredness and divinity are the products of society. For, if the first premise is that sacredness and divinity exist independent of either society or the individual, then both mechanisms become and expression of a built in compulsion. All cultures have concepts of the divine and sacredness not because they all have societies, but because they are common to all societies (which also helps explain why we sacrilize the things that aren't even sacred).

That is a little flip, but it does to things: (1) it maintains, or might even improve, the argument for the origins and function of religious belief, and (2) it brings sociological theory into a place where it is not directly contesting with faith. It works with, and not against, the faith structures that are valuable to those being theorized about. And that certainly makes me happier.

What this doesn't do is also two-fold: (1) it doesn't adhere to methodological atheism (which is why you will never see something like this in a work of sociology or an academic journal), and (2) it doesn't violate the bound of the data. There is nothing in Durkheim that proves he is right (which is why, at the end of the day, this is all just theory).

So, dear readers, read critically. Use what is useful; discard what is not.

A Few Points of Interest

2009-02-19T05:42:00.003-05:00

1. Apparently, one of the best known winter vacations spots in China has decided to sell a little bit of itself. Part of the Harbin ice festival has come under Disney management (albeit, via proxy). This reminded me of Starbucks in the Forbidden City incident a few years back. What made me laugh that time was it was originally French tourist who complained about it. In the linked article, Rui Chenggang seems incensed, but that wounded national pride seemed like it took a little long to muster up (i have photos of that Starbucks from summer 2004). It will be interesting to see what the reaction will be to the changes in Harbin and who will complain first. (HT: LZM)

2. The first trial of a Khmer Rouge began this last week. Duch, the former director of the infamous Toul Sleng prison in Phnom Penh, will be the first of the war criminals to face trial for the atrocities of the period under Pol Pot. Francios Bizot has an interesting op-ed concerning the trial in the NYT. One quote in particular really made me think for a moment:“I ask for your forgiveness — I know that you cannot forgive me, but I ask you to leave me the hope that you might,” [Duch] said before collapsing in tears on the shoulder of one of his guards.

Tainan

2009-02-16T05:25:00.003-05:00

The slower pace of life in Tainan hits you almost as soon as you get off the bus. Or, more accurately, it moseys over, shakes your hand and asks you what you want to eat first, reminding you to enjoy yourself as much as you can. In Tainan, that isn’t that difficult and task. In many ways, it reminds one of the feel in Chengdu, Sichuan, where life just goes by to the beat of another, much more relaxed drum (they say you can see the mahjong tables during your plane’s descent and that the smell of tea is ubiquitous). I was particularly lucky with my trip down south, as one of my good friends is a local and knows the city well and enjoys sharing its sights and sounds. Most of the stories and all the experiences are thanks to his well developed sense of what makes Tainan a truly unique place. And, as one of the oldest cities in Taiwan, it truly is a historical, cultural and culinary icon.

The city doesn’t skimp on history. In the 17th century, Tainan was the sight of a Dutch colony from which the Dutch staged a good deal of trade in the region. Their presence was short lived, as after the fall of the Ming dynasty, one of the Ming soldiers who continued to fight against the invading Manchus beat back the Dutch and claimed the city (and the island as a whole, really) as his staging area for further attacks on the mainland. Admiral Koxinga (陈成功) is praised throughout the island for this achievement (especially given he is one of a few examples of Chinese defeats of Westerners before the 1940s) and he is worshipped like a god. The marks of both these historical moments were on display at a few of the places I visited – namely the old Pingan fort (also known as old fort Zeelandia) and Chihkan Fort (Fort Provintia). Both boast little remaining Dutch architecture, but the images of the past are still quite evident and prove quite interesting. The Chihkan fort, now a temple in honor of Koxinga, has a series of tablet bearing stone tortoises. The story surrounding one of them is quite unique. According to the rumors, one of them mysteriously “wandered” down the street one night and was found blocks away. Some believed this a miraculous sign, others wondered if it was some kind of elaborate trick. My guide couldn’t really place which tortoise had been involved, but it made for a fun story. Another intriguing historical spot is an old trade office with what is called the “tree house.” I, of course, was expecting to find a lofted house high up in the boughs of some nearby tree. I had forgotten that I am in the land of the Banyan tree. These types of trees grow voraciously, like ivy, and literally pour all over and through nearby structures. The “tree house” was one such example, and was covered with the sprawling roots and branches.

Tainan boast some of the biggest, oldest, and most numerous temples of anywhere in Taiwan. The place is crawling with them. Think churches in the Bible belt and double it. Linked with temples are the many festivals that sprinkle the traditional Chinese calendar, and I was there for the specific purpose of taking part in celebrating one of them: the Lantern Festival (yaun xiao jie). Part of the festivities related to the Lantern Festival is the lighting of lanterns. These are rather large shuts on which are written prayers and hopes for the coming year. One can understand the symbolism.

Lit up like a small hot air balloon, the lanterns soar toward the heavens, carrying the prayers they wear with them. [as an aside, I noticed an eerie symbolism as I watched the lanterns go on their way. As they nearly winked out of sight, I often noticed that the fire that fueled them would weaken and, still slightly illuminated, the lantern would slowly fall back to earth. The remaining, feeble light seemed almost to mark the embarrassment at not having made it all the way to heaven with the prayers they carried. The poet in me munched away on this] Another classic part of the celebration in Tainan is the fengpao. Large scaffolds lined with mini fireworks are set up with the explosives aimed parallel to the ground and people crowd around, girded with thick layers and motorcycle helmets. The fireworks are then lit and go blazing into the crowd. It was quite the sight. You have to see it to fully understand the chaos. And of course, no Chinese holiday would be complete without an over-the-top fireworks display. Seated nearby manning a grill, it was a truly enjoyable experience for all the senses.

But if you go to Tainan, the real reason is always the food. As my friend put it, usually people just go from one meal to another with little in between as they enjoy the slower pace of life and the good company of friends. I will share some highlights. Though found throughout the island, oyster omelets in Tainan are a particular treat as the oyster come fresh from the nearby oyster farms. They are plump and tasty and the omelet is one of Taiwan’s culinary gems. Another dish that takes advantage of the juicy oysters is the shimu yu congee. The story I was told is that, when trying to name this local fish, some confusion developed and when one man asked “what type of fish is this? Zhe shi shenme yu?”it was mistaken for a statement and with the listeners thinking that shenme yu was the name of the fish. Shimu yu is of course a tad different, but pronunciation is like that sometimes. Regardless, this fish mixed with oysters in a salty congee with a little youtiao on the side is a delicious breakfast, lunch, or dinner. The douhua (a type of tofu mixed with a sweet juice and other toppings) is also supposed to be particularly good. The difference I noticed is that they serve it here with lemon juice, which adds a whole new delicious twist to the dish. Guancai ban is a fried bread that is cut opened and filled with various substances, one of which tastes almost exactly like what you would find in a pot pie – chicken, peas, and carrots in a savory cream sauce. They seem a tad odd, but are delightfully tasty. The last one I will mention was perhaps my favorite – Tainan style shrimp rolls. It is more like a fried shrimp mixture, as there isn’t an actual wrapping to it like one thinks of when they think of a role. But whatever you want to call them, the mixture of fresh shrimp and seasonings fries up scrumptiously. I could go on with the Tainan variation of flan, the night markets, fruit ices and more, but I am starting to salivate.

In all, a trip to Tainan is presents a compelling image of Taiwan. Whether it is the history, the cultural trimmings and trappings, or the famous eats, Tainan tells you something, not just about the local Tainanese, but about the sensibilities of the people all over the island.

[all pictures were randomly scoured off the internet. but they look exactly like what i ate.]

Administrative Note

2009-02-16T05:23:00.002-05:00

I have decided to repurpose this site, again. Instead of being primarily China related work, the dissident will house my more analytical work of cultural commentary, literature reviews, and articles. other items will be at the old home.

Educated Elite?

2009-01-04T08:35:00.006-05:00

The BBC’s publication of an article on how the current financial crisis is hitting not only Chinese factories, production, and the economy at large, but will directly squeeze the college students set to graduate in the summer. This, of course, goes without saying and is likely true of most countries across the world. I can vouch for the market shock has left friends with jobs threatened, lost, or never found to begin with. But the issue in China hits a spot that has already been weakened by years of growing tension.

In 1999, the Chinese government decided upon a generally beneficial and highly laudable program of education opportunity expansion that would dramatically increase the number of students enrolled in institutes of higher education. What had previously been available to a mere few would now be possible for far more as the government pressed to draw ever more people into the benefits of the developing economy. The results, as can be seen in the graph below, were dramatic.Within just a few years, the number of students enrolled in college quadrupled, expanding education opportunities to a previously unheard of scale. The problem with this was that economic growth was not keeping pace, or at least not in the way that had been hoped. Much of China’s growth has been in areas of production. The development of sectors that require highly trained, better educated populations have developed, but at a much slower pace, and certainly not in the exponential way that college enrollment has increased.

This became and remains problematic for a number of reasons. To begin with, it meant that far too many graduates were finding themselves unemployed or “underemployed” (employed in jobs or fields that either paid far less than expected or that could have been obtained without the investment in a college education). A second problem has been that this is a compounded crisis. Each year a larger number of graduates than before end up without suitable work and they are added to the prior pool of still unemployed graduates. In 2004, the first year that the boom classes began to graduate, this excess number of graduates was about half a million. That number has increased by around 200,000-300,000 each year. As Chris Hogg notes in the BBC article, there are an estimate six and a half million students graduating this next year. There were two and a half million in 2004.

Even before the current financial crisis, economic pressure was etched into the lives of Chinese students. Having had the opportunity to talk with hundreds of students in multiple major cities, I found that jobs and financial security was one of the most commonly discussed topics, competing tightly with the issues of dating and relationships for the lead. But even relationships eventually lead to discussions of economic solvency as young men bewail the twin curses of likely not having the economic stature to get married until their mid thirties (counting a well paid job, car, and apartment as must haves and calculating based on expected salaries after graduating) and seeing the most desirable of their female classmates often choosing to marry up – finding a financially established though older man. Female students often discuss their college years as a time to play around in relationships – to fall in and out of love – because their choices concerning marriage will be more pragmatically motivated. It also goes without saying that the pressures of the one Child policy and the necessity that such a single child provide for both his parents and grandparents is universally felt.

The government is promising job creation. This, however, may prove a pipe-dream as the economy continues to contract. It is also important to note that creating more jobs for struggling graduates has been tried before but to little effect. Nine million jobs is the exact number that the government promised to create in 2003 to meet the needs of the coming graduate class. That scheme was nearly imperceptible in terms of overall impact over the next few years (China Daily December 23, 2003).

As much as the media has pointed to the closing of factories and the return of migrant workers to their hometowns as an anxious and unemployed class as a possible source of social instability, unemployed college graduates may be an even bigger problem. For starters, workers are much more likely to act locally, responding to specific grievances through specific means with very tangible ends in mind. They are also limited in terms of the scope of their activities. Local disturbances, though sometimes large (hence the popular use of the term “mass disturbances”) rarely expand beyond their locale. Students are a frighteningly different story. These unemployed masses are far more interconnected as they have grown up with a healthy diet of cell-phones, text messages, blogs and BBS boards. These are the engines of widespread mass movements over the last few years. The anti-Japan riots in 2005 and anti-French protests of last year were all products of mobilization via internet resources, as are the frequent and frightening human flesh searches. This is the playground of the jobless student.

Students graduating without jobs also have a bit more to gripe about. This is not in regards to their level of estrangement from the benefits of the state, but more in terms of their having invested heavily and lost out. The amount of pressure, studious hours, and money spent to get a student into and through college is enormous. To emerge from that process jobless or with prospects no different than one who had never entered at all is a hard for most students to simply accept. It would be hard to imagine these students not exhibiting some form of frustration; the questions remain what form, at whom and to what degree.

GCC Review: Wolf Totem

2008-11-22T10:48:00.001-05:00

My review of Jiang Rong's novel _Wolf Totem_ over at the GCC website: [here]

When Bailouts Aren't Forthcoming

2008-11-20T08:11:00.003-05:00

CDT [China Digital Times] picked up on rumors circulating the blogosphere concerning the possibility that a few of China’s car manufacturing giants were contemplating buying into the current turmoil surrounding the “Big Three” American automotive firms (GM, Ford, and Chrysler). This would not be the first time that Chinese companies have attempted buying major American brands, but all that is left to us is the joy of speculation as to what might transpire as we wait for confirmation of any such deals.

One of those prior deals - China National Offshore Oil Corp.’s, or CNOOC, bid for Unocal – might prove an interesting point of comparison. That particular bid , occurring in 2005, created quite the stir in the American media when it became particularly concerning to Capitol Hill. Politicians became severely concerned by the idea of CNOOC (a largely state-owned oil company) buying up an American oil firm. “National security” was waved all over the place and, given that competition between the US and China over fuel sources is projected to be a serious point of conflict, the panic found quite a few believers far too frightened to sit tight and watch the deal go through. The plan was eventually scuttled when it became too politically sensitive for CNOOC to complete the bid and for Unocal to accept it. Many experts had doubts about the reality of the threat many congressmen were trumpeting, but it made little difference on an issue so particularly sensitive. Especially given that CNOOC is, again, has rather clear links to the central government. The incident was highly instructive in how politically charged economic competition with China really is.

Now the question is what reaction China will get from the Hill in a time of crisis. The car industry is not the same as concerns about oil corporations and access to reserves, but the enormity of these brand names alone may startle people. It may also be enough to push senators into action over the proposed bailouts for the Big Three, for better or for worse. The thought of Ford Motors or GM owned by a Chinese corporation (or anyone for that matter) may prick hearts enough to quicken the debate about whether and how to save Detroit. And it will also give us another glimpse of just how concerned Congress is about the growth of Chinese economic power. Congress likely can’t stop such a deal, but they can make the whole process incredibly uncomfortable.

But all this might not matter if the proposals for said sales do not materialize in the next few days. Rumors are rumors, and the benefit of such a move is not all that clear. Truthaboutcars.com , where CDT originally picked up the story, seems to think this to be a no brainer for these Chinese manufacturers:

A take-over of a large overseas auto maker would fit perfectly into China’s plans. As reported before, China has realized that its export chances are slim without unfettered access to foreign technology. The brand cachet of Chinese cars abroad is, shall we say, challenged. The Chinese could easily export Made-in-China VWs, Toyotas, Buicks. If their joint venture partner would let them. The solution: Buy the joint venture partner. Especially, when he’s in deep trouble.

The problem with deep trouble is, when you buy the company you get the trouble. This would be a business equivalent of needing to remember that your fiancé’s nightmare of a mother is part of the deal. China Car Times picks up this argument, noting that the Chinese manufactures would not only be picking up a bill for something they didn’t buy, they already are having problems of their own as domestic demand slows. The site does make another interesting point about skipping the mess of purchasing the companies themselves and just nabbing their suppliers:

What we could see is Chinese players taking over suppliers to Detroits[sic] big three in the USA, this would be an excellent time for the Chinese big players to get hold of a supply chain that is well experienced in designing, producing, and supplying quality components on a strict timetable, this is something that can be successfully [sic] carried over to production of Chinese cars in China, and improving the quality aspects that many Chinese cars suffer from.

Either way, grab some popcorn – this will be entertaining.

Hedging More Than Their Bets

2008-11-16T10:19:00.003-05:00

Only a few weeks back, as the current global financial crisis started to spread out from the crumbling wake of bank collapses in New York, the leadership in China expressed confidence that their economic machine would be able to weather the blast. Initially, this sounded quite feasible, as the Chinese economy has been on an unfathomable upward trend of growth, particularly within the last few years (over 11% in 2007). Additionally, during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, China came through nearly unscathed even though the IMF had to bailout numerous economies in the region. But it now appears that such early confidence is dissipating in the face of slowed exports and investments due to the extent of the damage amongst China’s primary investors. What is unfolding is not only an economic rescue effort that many think will could dramatically change the composition of the Chinese economic machine, but it is also a glaring warning buzzer that things are not alright on the mainland.

China Slide –
As recession takes hold in the Eurozone and the US teeters on the edge, the export and foreign investment based economy in China has begun to feel the squeeze. This week, the Washington Post noted that, with 68,000 small companies in the Pearl River Delta collapsing and estimates of 2.5 million lost jobs, “For the first time in the 30 years since China began its capitalist transformation, there is a perception that the economy is in real trouble.” While that may be an overstatement (the 1989 Tiananmen protest was, in essence, a student reaction to the general feeling that the reforms were hurting rather than helping, and the liberalization of state-owned enterprises caused horrific levels of unemployment, especially in the industry heavy north), it certainly catches the current mood. Especially given that stock markets had already been on a nose-dive downward trajectory.

More disturbing is the dip in growth. Over the last few years, the Party has been trying hard to manage white-hot growth rates. Within months, the problem has completely reversed itself. While estimates for growth over the last quarter showed a drop from last year and many are predicting that the next quarter will show another significant drop as the economic crisis continues. Forbes relayed predictions that the rate would fall to 5.8% for the final quarter and level to around 7.5% for 2009. An NY Times article reports:

“Don’t count on China to get back to double-digit growth for the next few years,” said Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong.

Those numbers are certainly the envy of many a country, including most the developed nations being shellacked by financial upheaval, but they represent a rather significant problem for China. 8% GDP growth is pegged as the required level to keep China’s massive population from experiencing dangerous levels of unemployment. With civil disturbances, or mass incidents as they are called in the mainland – protests for short – already at a noticeably high level, the government is likely scared stiff at the prospect of 2.5 million unemployed, unhappy migrant workers heading home with legions more possibly following on their heels.

China’s Plan and Longterm Effects –
The plan is, in essence, two pronged: (1) to stimulate the economy through government spending on public works (ie, rail expansion, health care, rebuilding areas damaged by the May earthquake, etc.) and (2) to foster domestic private consumption to offset the slump in exports and foreign investment. The plan, as indistinct as it is at this point, would poor nearly $600 million dollars into stimulating the economy. Portions of the package seem to already be rolled into previously approved spending and the program will take around two years to fully run its course. This has produced mixed feelings about the possible success of the program. Simon Elegant quotes Ben Simpfendorfer as saying that he worries “the contraction in demand will take place before the fiscal policies have time to take effect." The Wall Street Journal ran an article with a much more optimistic review of the plan, casting it as the perfect way to loosen Chinese consumers’ notoriously tight fists. Either way, there is little to say about how the plan will turn out until more is known about the exact implementation and how much more damage will be done both to domestic business and to the foreign economies that primarily support them.

Reasons Why? –
Now, we should not go thinking that this stimulus package was put forth with much thought for the state of the global economy: this was a fundamentally self-serving effort. And for good reason. Experts had been clamoring for Chinese action to help in the crisis, but it didn’t seem Zhongnanhai was likely to budge until the water levels started to rise at home. The Times UK had a rather direct assessment of the situation:

The leadership's interest in safeguarding growth goes beyond a desire to preside over an expanding economy. In the 30 years since Deng launched China's market-led economic reforms, Marxism-Maoism has withered. The legitimacy of the one-party regime rests on its ability to provide increasing material well-being for its 1.3 billion people.

This more or less hits the nail on the head. For the Communist Party, ideology, in actuality if not in self-representation, has taken a serious back seat during the decades following the 1989 Tiananmen movement. Since, businessmen have been included and students heavily recruited to fill the ranks of the Party in an attempt to incorporate these two power bases into the fate of the Party. But it still stands that current Party authority remains tied to their ability to properly manage the growing economy and to the extent which nationalistic sentiments can be maintained. Thus, the economic crisis strikes at the very heart of the Party’s stability. However, as of now there may not be too much to fear. Regardless of the extent to which the Party pushes the concept of the “harmonious society” and the threat that rural mass incidents present to that projected harmony, there is likely little that the need seriously concern state leadership. Mass incidents and rural disturbances rarely pose serious threats to the overall stability of the state and the authority of the Party. It is more a question of monitoring sentiment among businessmen and students, for that is where any real threat has ever and could really materialize. As long as both groups see their collective fates as linked to the health of the Party-state, the boat may rock but it certainly won’t threaten to capsize. Count on the fact that the CCP knows this because they, like most people in China, have very long memories.

The Difference the Straits Make

2008-10-25T11:42:00.003-04:00

I have been keeping track of some differences that i have observed here and wanted to record them for your viewing pleasure and my personal research/analytical purposes.

1.) Language: this is one of the most obvious differences. traditional characters instead of simplified was something i knew i needed to be prepared for. but it is also important to note that the names for things are different as well. this is similar to the difference between, say, England and the US. most of the time this isn't a big issue. you just have to learn how to hold the two in tension. however, there are interesting little differences that tell you something about the development of the two areas. an example: the word for "netizen" in Taiwan (ROC) is wang you whereas in the PRC it is wang min. The word wang refers to the internet, you comes from the word for friend or friendly, whereas min is from the word for people (the same people in the People's Republic of China). It carries a bit more of that socialist/populist undertone.

2.)Hi-chews: i have had these candies in Korea and China, and the flavors in China were rather run of the mill. they have mango, melon, and strawberry yoghurt here. heck yes.

3.)Cramped Streets: now, there is nothing like the population ridiculousness in the mainland, but at least they built wider, broader streets. here, everthings is packed in tight. it looks much more like streets in Japan than anywhere in China. this is something i observed before (when i noticed that Gaoxiong, Dalian and Tokyo had similar feels around certain areas). this may be the influence from Japan, or just bad planning, but buses, cars, motorbikes and pedestrians are all packed closely together.

4.)Convenience: someone asked me the other day if i though it was more convenient to live here than in the mainland. i didn't actually have a good answer. certian things are far more convenient here: imported items are more abundant, much much less red tape, and things are much better organized and ordered. however, the plethora of small shops that crowd mainland streets aren't here. and i have yet to find a veggie market (i shop for fruits and veggies at the grocery store...which works), though there is a truck that drives around. and my apartment actually has only one or two restaurants within 10 minutes walking distance. that would be unheard of in the mainland. if that were so, there would be a guy with a cart. scratch that, six guys with carts.

5.)Bikes: no one here rides a bike for transportation. okay, that is a little bit of an exageration. only a little. there are thousands of motorbikes. but bikes are more of a recreational instrument than they are a means of transport. that means that the little bike repair stands also dont exist. in there stead are full-blown bike shops with bikes costing more than i am willing to pay in order to ride back and forth from school. take all the mainland bike riders and put them on mopeds - that is taiwanese traffic

6.)Recycling: Taiwan is green. WAY green. you recycle everything here. that is totally different from the mainland where you can't even try to recycle if you wanted to. not only do you need to recycle here, but everything is seperated out: food matter, different types of plastics, cardboard, paper, metals, glass, etc. it is the most nerveracking thing ever to take out the trash.

7.) Cost Ratios: there is, naturally, a difference in prices between Taiwan and the mainland. This is to be expected as Taiwan’s economy is more developed and the general level of wealth higher than that of the mainland. The difference in cost that most concerns me, however, is that between items within one country. Example: the cost of potatoes relative to milk relative to cereal in the mainland would be one ration, whereas here is it different. This initially was a little confusing (honestly, it confused me when I moved back to the states this summer) but actually makes sense on a lot of levels. One reason for the varying ratios is national regulations of imported products. In general, imported products here cost less then they do in the mainland. This is primarily because the economy here is more stable and the state doesn’t need to employ protectionist measures against foreign products. Taiwan has plenty of foodstuffs that beat foreign products off the shelves. Another reason is simply that there are Western foods that are produced domestically. I can get pasta made local for a ¼ of what I got it for in the mainland. The other big divergence is in the produce aisle. This is again linked to imports, but in another way. In the mainland, most of their produce are grown local. That and you just don’t get imported produce. Not that I remember. In Taiwan, they don’t grow in the same volume and variety and therefore certain things simply cost more based on their being imported or relative production costs. For example: the last three fruits I bought were apples (I think they were Galas), peaches, and plums. All of them were from California.

8.) Individual Meals: there is certainly no lack of individual meals in China, but they are by no means the norm. most restaurants serve family style, complete with lazy susan. That is not the case in Taiwan. Or, at least it isn’t the case where I live. The vast majority of restaurants serve individual meals that are actually rather well balanced. You get your main dish and a few sides (always veggies – counting tofu as a veggie…even though it is technically a bean…) on rice or noodles. Often they come in box – many people eat on the go here. The boxes are similar to the bento box type meal one would find in Japan (again, the Japanese influence). I have never seen anything like that in the mainland. If you get an individual meal it is either gai zhao fan (a dish on rice, which is a word they don’t even use here – they take out the zhao in Taiwan) or a bowl of noodles/wontons. Or streetside fried rice. Which is freakin awesome and I miss it terribly. I haven’t yet been to a restaurant with a family style meal, save the one trip to hot pot.

9.) Open Criticism: it is rather well known that there are certain things that one simply ought not say in certain company, certain situations, and certainly never on line where Yahoo or Skype will sell you out. However, anything goes in Taiwan. One of my first weeks in class, a teacher ranted about how corrupt and stupid the former President is (he is currently caught in a rather hilarious money laundering scandal). That was new for me. And there have been periodic rallies against the current President and his policies vis-à-vis China.

10.) Young Parents: Every day or so this happens to me. I am walking down some street and I see some girl and I think to myself, “self, she seems about your age.” And then her four year old comes running around the corner. There are far more of these young couples with children than I would ever have seen in the mainland. I guess this is related to two things: (1) because of the one child policy, families that can have children wait till they can best care for that one child. I mean, if you only get one shot (in theory) then you should be prepared. (2) Mainlanders, on average (and I am basing this mainly on the cities where I have lived…it may be different in rural regions) get married later. Most students I would talk to were almost certain they would wait till they were at least 30 before getting married. Some even would say as late as 35. This is based on their expectations concerning their prospects. At least, for the guys that is the case. Most Chinese men believe (and are likely correct in doing so) that they need a good job, apartment, and a car before they are a viable marriage prospect. Based on likely incomes out of college, this usually will average out to their reaching the age of 35 before accomplishing all these tasks. Taiwan simply doesn’t have this problem.

11.) Internal Tension: life here in Taiwan is quite a bit more relaxed than any place I lived in the mainland, save a few really chill coastal cities. People are a bit more friendly toward each other and generally more obliging. I have a few theories on why. There is a bit more of that ingrained respect for others that comes from Confucian and Buddhist belief systems, both of which are far more alive in Taiwan than in the mainland. Also, the reality of scarcity in the mainland always made things more tense. There are only so many seats, only so many people can get to the counter before lunch, etc. Additionally, the lack of certainty about the cost of things would always add a bit of that tension in the mainland. If you are a wai di ren (some one from outside the area) and especially if you a lao wai (a foreigner, non-Chinese – mostly white) you can be pretty sure you are getting jacked on the price of that jacket and those socks. Lastly, I think there is a lot to say for how deeply the Cultural Revolution damaged people’s trust of one another.

12.) External Tension: For myself, one of the hardest things to navigate while in the mainland was how to speak honestly about things in the mainland that concerned me without stepping on the toes of the person to whom I was speaking. Sometimes this was near impossible, especially if the listener was of the fen qing (angry youth) variety. Criticism was never taken lightly, and sadly (though in some ways inevitably) China bashing is rather rampant. Taiwan has been another experience. Things are rather orderly and people are at terms with themselves and their nation. I mean, I could point out that it is kind of weird that Taiwanese parliamentarians occasionally beat each other up, but they could point out that they have done a better job figuring out health care. Essentially, the point is that Taiwan has a self confidence in relation to the rest of the world. China’s relationship with the world is much more tortured. This is especially true in regards to the West and Japan. There is a lot of history behind this and many ways to explain it. I won’t go into that. Someone else will write that book (or, likely has…). The point though is that it is there.

Nobel Prizes and the Chinese Lawyer

2008-10-09T23:55:00.004-04:00

****UPDATE****
The Nobel Prize was just announced and was presented to former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari. I, for one, am a little disappointed.

This year's presentation of the Nobel Peace Prize has stirred up quite the cloud of controversy. The prize, which in the last few years has gone to mostly humanitarian and politically neutral efforts (micro-finance, nuclear weapons monitoring, etc.), might make a significant splash. Many observers are putting their money on two Chinese legal rights activists, lawyers Gao Zhisheng and Hu Jia. Gao has been missing since September 22nd 2007 - reportedly in detention and possibly undergoing torture - and Hu, Gao's friend and associate, was arrested and sentced just prior to the Beijing Olympics.

Stein Toennesson, the head of the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, believes the two activists are likely front runners , especially now that the Beijing Olympics are over. Toennesson points out that the only Chinese to ever win the Peace Prize was the Dalai Lama, and he lives in exile. The Peace award has never been presented to another Chinese, let alone a dissident still in the country and in the grips of struggling against the state. The clamor has been such that China has issued a statement that they hoped the Nobel Peace Prize will reward what it called "the right person".

Gao and Hu both represent one of the most intriguing political movements in China. within the last few years, lawyers and rights activists have turned to testing the extent to which the law is applied and upheld in the mainland. Everything from property rights, the rights of religious organizations, and illegal land seizures have been pressed in the courts by a growing group of lawyers bent on beating into shape some semblence of a rule of law in China. Gao and Hu have been invovled with some of the most high profile cases. Though many of their cases meet with little success, as they are highly controversial and aim straight at the abuses of the ruling Communist Party, they have had a significantly growing role in the development of civil society in China.

However, Gao Zhisheng represents and especially interesting case. In 2005, the New York Times published and extensive article on Gao’s exploits, carrying a heavy sense of an imminent reaction by the state for his boldness in criticizing state policy. Calling him a political “gadfly”, the article outlines a boldness that treads that thin line between incomparable heroism and complete recklessness. But, as Gao puts it himself, "People across this country are awakening to their rights and seizing on the promise of the law," Mr. Gao says. "But you cannot be a rights lawyer in this country without becoming a rights case yourself." But such “flagrant dissidence” could only go on for so long.

He was arrested in August 2006 as part of a tightening of control on the expanding activism of “rights defense” lawyers. His was the most high profile of arrests meant to send a warning to rights lawyers throughout the country. A secretive trial followed, of which neither his family nor lawyer were informed. He received a rather light sentencing in December of that year, prompting suspicions that he had compromised with authorities. A subsequently publicized confession seemed to confirm these fears. Hu Jia, however, rallied to his defense, pointing out that the public discrediting was likely as much a part of the Communist government’s plan to diminish Gao’s influence as the arrest and conviction had been. A later phone call from Gao to Hu confirmed that the confession had been real but that it was made under extreme duress. In particular, Gao cited threats to his wife and children. Gao did put to rest fears that he had sold out colleagues and fellow right’s activists. New York Times reports on the aftermath noted that Gao had found the near house arrest conditions that he had been living under after his release had proven that he could not remain quite. This reemergence is likely the cause for his disappearance in September of 2007. He has not been heard from since, though rumors have been leaked that he is in detention and has experienced rather severe torture. Assassination and suicide attempts have also been alleged, but nothing is known about his whereabouts or condition.

Gao's case is interesting for another reason. Not only an active and outspoken lawyer, Gao is a Christian. He isn't the only one, as the growing lawyer-activist movement is disproportionately populated by such men. An early meeting between Christian activist and President George Bush showcased two such men - Wang Yi and Li Baiguang - and the third participant, write Yu Jie, has been an outspoken supporter of the push for rule of law. Wang Yi is not only a lawyer, but also pastors and well known church in Chengdu, where he is a law lecturer. Wang Yi was involved with originating a 2004 petition in defense of an internet essayist who had been arrested on subversion charges. The petition included signatures from 102 different well known lawyers, writers, professors, and political activists. He also recently was involved with bringing suit against the local Religious Affairs Bureau for their violation of constitutional rights for freedom of worship.

Gao Zhisheng, Wang Yi, and Yu Jie all represent an interesting emergence of Christian intellectuals into the mainstream of political and social reform in China. Though mostly adopting a critical tone, each of these activists are all working well within the bounds of wanting to see constructive change - not an overthrow of the government. This is particularly clear in the cases of Gao and Wang, whose legal work aims at a fulfillment of the rights already enshrined in China's national laws. Theirs is a hope for a progressing and growing China. With the growth of the church in China, it is inevitable that such figures will arise, just by nature of the statistical probability. But the question remains how such intellectuals can and will influence society and what legacy they will begin to construct. If one takes the examples of Wang and Gao, it seems that the Christian intellectual community has at least taken a firm first step.

The Moon - China's Next Big Thing?

2008-10-01T11:29:00.003-04:00

The big news in mainland Chinese news portals was the recent return of the Shenzhou 7, the Chinese spacecraft that carried a manned shuttle into orbit. One of the crew, Zhai Zhigang, became the first Chinese to space walk, exiting the ship for just shy of fifteen minutes. The effort was a ringing success, aside from disgruntled commercial air passengers who had flights grounded, without prior warning, before the lift-off and the comical mistake on the part of the Xinhua news agency who reported a successful launch, including detailed dialogue with the crew, before the ship had left the platform.

The Chinese space program is an interesting phenomenon. The rise of taikonauts to join the ranks of astronauts and cosmonauts is peculiar in a post-Cold War era where the advent of space tourism is on the up. Additionally, before this and earlier flights, cries directed at the reasonableness of such a program in a country that has no lack of needy programs. Zhang Hong in the Guardian puts it rather directly noting that “Since China started this programme, there's no sign that it will stop any time soon. The undisclosed cost of the Shenzhou programme, normally calculated into the military's expense, will keep rising in the foreseeable future without any practical benefits. This would likely spark dissatisfaction among lawmakers since China has many other areas hungry for capital, including the rebuilding of the earthquake-hit areas, the anti-poverty strategy in rural areas and the huge hole in the pension system.” But what Zhang Hong notes there at the beginning of his quote is perhaps the most important point. Manned flights and space walks are just the beginning, even according to Chinese space program authorities.

But the resounding question is why? There are two reasonable options: (1) a heightened competition with the United States in the global hegemony tug of war. Space represented and important front in the posturing of the Cold War, and there is plenty pointing to the possibility that China is doing a lot of posturing behind the smoke and mirrors of their claims to a “peaceful rise.” Among these would include the dramatic investment in their military and the not so subtle buddying up with authoritarian regimes in Central Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa. (2) the Chinese see this as a source of pride that will only add to their claim to be a world power of the highest sort and will put before the people yet another grand vision of national unity and collective accomplish for the glory of the motherland and the benefit of the future.

Personally, I am not sold on the first of these options. It is one better known to neo-conservative foreign policy types who are always looking for the next country trying to dislodge American pre-eminence. I in no way believe in the peacefulness or benevolence of the Chinese government, but the Communist Party leadership knows as well as anyone that they are joined at the hip with the US and cannot afford to directly confront them, nor do they have much reason to want to.

The second option is strangely compelling, especially given the timing of the launch. Late September puts us one month beyond the mother of all national unity events in China. The Olympic Games were a historical moment that overwhelmed the last seven years of Chinese political and social life. Much was sacrificed and sanctioned in the name of the harmonious society necessary for a successful games. Homes were torn down, money spent in absurd quantities, rights suspended, and lives co-opted all in the name of the Olympics. And the amazing thing was how the people bought this. It would not be overdoing it to say that the Hu Jintao leadership and his emphasis on a harmonious society were sincerely aided by the presence of the games and the “Olympic Spirit.” One need look no further than the riots in Tibet and the reaction in mainland China to realize the scope of its influence. Reactions were in no way turned to trying to explain why a whole minority group would so violently show their disapproval and rather were turned to a fierce defense of the pride of a nation coming under increasing scrutiny from abroad. The internet was flooded with anti-Western media content and one couldn’t speak a word otherwise without being branded a traitor. Newspaper editors who said otherwise were hounded out of their jobs and a Duke student was made famous when she came under attack from the wrath of the netizen mob.

Thus, it would be unexceptional for the Party to be seeking for a replacement for the Olympic spirit. It is conceivable that a moon landing could, in some smaller way, be the next source of nationalistic fervor. Without doubt, the Apollo program captured American imagination and sentiments in a way that could still bring a crumbling country together. Could Chinese leaders be hoping for a similar source of social cohesion? They have, historically, been nigh shameless in their use of symbols for nationalistic fervor, with Japan being an unfortunate recipient of much of that ire. Nationalism and ethnic unity have been vital to continued Party dominance. We just might be seeing the man behind the curtain trying to change the wizard’s face. And that, to answer Zhang Hong's question of whether China can afford such a program, as we saw with the spectacular Olympic spectacle, is always worth it.

Beijing Imposes Car Ban

2008-09-28T23:42:00.002-04:00

China Daily reported that the government in Beijing will be imposing restrictions on car use, similar to what was used during the Olympic Games. The effort to clean the skies up is likely directly related to the clean skies that we were able to enjoy during the games. Word had it that people in Beijing were a tad disgruntled that the skies could be so clean and weren't too thrilled about the weather going back to what it was. although, since this restriction includes private vehicles, those same Beijing-ren* will likely not enjoy not being able to use their cars when they wan't.

i understand the need to clean up the skies, but i don't understand the car bans. first, the cars are only part of the problem, with the amount of idustry in the surounding regions also taking its toll on air quality. those same factories were also restricted (ie. shut down completely) during the games. but most importantly, this seems like a cosmetic and not a surgical solution to the problem. the fact that China still lacks emission standards and that cars still don't (unless every car owner in china i know was lying to me) have catalytic converters. those were two of the big influences on the progress made in reducing smog in areas like Los Angeles. Smog checks and c-convertors. Part of the problem is that the car companies that sell cars to China don't require catalytic convertors if they don't have to. while one can blame such companies for being "ecologically insensitive," you can't blame them for not wanting to spend money they don't have to on the production of their vehicles. dealing with this problem would be more forward looking, but again, i don't believe this set of restrictions has anything to do with being forward looking.

Assessing the North korean Threat: Conclusions

2008-09-27T23:34:00.001-04:00

One thing we can say for certain is that North Korea likely does not have the capacity to wage a prolonged war of any kind. The nation seems to exist on near subsistence level (or, likely far below subsistence levels) rations, and it isn’t much different for the 1.1 million soldiers that they have in their army. The rations necessary to maintain the North Korean army in the field, at any distance from their own territory, and with US air forces pounding on their supply lines, would be far more than the country could provide for. Beyond that, the North Korean army may simply lack the petrol they would need to operate their military vehicles. We already know that their air force is limited in terms of cockpit time because it simply uses too much fuel (which means they have no hope of fending off the well trained, well equipped, and experienced American pilots). This raises one question that I have yet to see anyone address: was the short launch of all seven missiles, including what was thought to be the Taepodong 2, not a malfunction and not a conscious maneuver, but rather simply just the result of not putting enough fuel in them? Is it not perfectly likely that the North Koreans, know that the launch was a test, were not willing to use the fuel necessary to send ballistic missiles far enough to show their full potential? If so, this simply speaks to the general lack of supplies in North Korea and underscores their inability to project their forces beyond their immediate border.

The last remaining danger is China. China remains the only ally of North Korea that wields any tangible power and influence. However, it is unclear how much China actually cares about the regime. It seems more that China simply doesn’t want to shoulder the burden of what a toppled North Korean regime would mean for their economy. The number of refugees that would likely pour across the border could be over ten million and they would bring with them their starvation, their disease, and their lack of any valuable resources whatsoever. They would also represent unemployed mouths that would simply be competing with the vast numbers of unemployed in China who already feel the pinch of an economy going through dramatic change. There would simply be no way for China to handle the burden. They lack the infrastructure and economic capacity to handle it. However, it seems highly unlikely that China would court conflict with the US, especially if it gave the Japanese a reason to rearm and gave the South Koreans a reason to finally and fully turn against China. The growth of the Chinese economy is too important for the PRC to be willing to risk everything for an ally that has been nothing but trouble and a drain on their resources.

Thus, in order to answer the question we started with, we are left with Kim Jong-Il himself. As the single person who, it seems, controls the direction of the nation, it is Kim who we must seek to understand in order to predict how he might act. Any reasonable leader would hesitate to commit his nation to destruction. No matter the cost, that is a terribly unpopular move. Neither Stalin, nor Khrushchev; neither Mao, nor Brezhnev, nor any substantial communist leader or crazy dictator was willing to throw everything away. The doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction did its job to stymie any action that would mark the annihilation that loomed over the participants of the Cold War. However, Kim sometimes seems to be less…rational than any leader before him.

In an effort to get a sense of who might best reflect the mindset of Kim Jong-Il, I landed on the character from a rather recent and popular movie. In the movie Gladiator, the character of Commodus is at once childish, aggressive, defensive, insufferably proud, and infinitely excitable. When forgotten, he did all that he could to court favor and gain attention. When threatened, he did all he could to maintain his power and his pride. In some ways, Kim embodies this immature, volatile and violent character. What that means is we are dealing with someone who is predictable in his unpredictability. He will likely do anything to gain and keep attention. He will string along foreign nations and attempt to extort them for all they are worth. And, He will not give in easily. Ultimately, the threat that North Korea poses rests in the threatening nature of its leader whose sense of reality is severely underdeveloped. We thus must guard against the chance that his desire for survival may reach that of the trapped rat who will strike out against a predator of any size. Kim can never win, but in some sense he doesn’t have to.

Assessing the North Korean Threat: Victims and Targets

2006-07-20T09:44:00.000-04:00

The group of people who by far face the greatest danger from the North Korean regime is the very population of the country. Whether that danger takes the form of starvation given the horrendously stupid agricultural policies and even stupider distribution of economic resources (a huge portion of the North Korean budget goes to the military and weapons development), the threat of imprisonment for political crimes, or simply being the bullet in the gun that is the North Korean army that Kim Jong-Il is raring to discharge at his enemies in purely suicidal fashion, the North Korean people face incredible odds. No one will suffer more if we leave the regime alone; no one will suffer more if we confront the regime head on. This is the catch-22 of North Korea. How do you destroy a regime that is willing to sacrifice its own people?

The country that faces the gravest threat from the North Korean regime is, without question, South Korea. As much as clueless youths and completely ignorant politicians (insert the name of nearly any Uri party member here, especially Kim Won-Ung who may perhaps be the dumbest lawmaker in any country ever. I have NEVER seen more incompetence in a single interview) want to convey the fact that North Korea doesn’t want to attack the South, only hates the US and Japan, and if they do attack will only fire at US bases (courtesy of Kim Won-Ung), the fact of the matter is that North Korea holds South Korea hostage. The only reason that North Korean remains a communist nation and hasn’t been wiped off the map is due to it proximity to South Korea. Seoul lies within artillery range of North Korea and the destruction that North Korea’s army would wreak on the peninsula before US forces could destroy their fighting capabilities is incomprehensible. Thankfully, South Korea has made some steps in the right direction of late and looks to be cutting off their unmonitored aid to North Korea. However, Roh Moo-hyun and the current administration seem to lack any sense of direction in how to deal with North Korea and have rejected the idea of sanctions.

Japan feels perhaps as threatened as South Korea because they realize that North Korean missiles can reach their nation and that North Korea would need little reason to launch against Japan. This adds a little more clarity to Shinzo Abe’s comments on the possibility of a pre-emptive strike on North Korea. Combining North Korean recalcitrance with the vivid memories of what it is like to be attacked with nuclear weapons understandably has Japan on edge. So much so that they were the first to throw in their resolution against North Korea (including the drastic Chapter 7 invocation) and they are likely to be the first to levy sanctions against North Korea, which may include freezing the assets of groups in Japan that help finance North Korea. Japan has balked before, but it seems that – with the approval of the UN Security Council behind them – they won’t likely succumb to North Korean threats. Now, there are simply too many nations to threaten.

The United States faces little in terms of direct threats when it comes to North Korea. Even if their Taepodong 2 works as some expect it might (though the July 4th launch was certainly a poor showing) it would only be able to hit parts of Alaska and the bases in Guam. Bases in Okinawa and Seoul were always possible targets, but if these two were ever directly threatened, much more would already be at stake. The only real threat to the US comes in the form of our commitment to defend the interests of our allies. War on the peninsula poses a serious threat to the US (though certainly not as tragic a threat as South Korea faces). Thus, the real question of whether North Korea is a threat comes down to whether they are actually willing to wage a war.

Assessing the North Korean Threat: Background

2006-07-19T10:05:00.000-04:00

Recently, I posed a question to the kids in the SAT prep class I teach in Korea: does North Korea pose a realistic threat? Admittedly, this was probably not the most ethical thing ever, as I fully intended to use their responses for the purpose of this article (and did I mention I never told them that?). Similarly, this doesn’t provide a very good indication as to what South Koreans think, as many of my students have spent more time in the last 5-6 years outside of Korea than in it. One student had to ask if it was okay that she was answering because she was “biased” after having lived in the US for too long. Generally, however, when asked if they thought North Korea posed a threat (to South Korea, Japan, the US, the world – I left it open ended) most of them thought that the belligerent little dictatorship of Kim Jong-Il’s was not a realistic threat. Most had good reasons. Some had awful ones, but that happens in these prep classes.

However, it raised an important question that I realized I had no answer for. What threat does the North Korean regime pose and to whom? The question itself raises other important questions about whether or not the North Korean regime acts rationally and whether that rationality is based on the country as a whole or merely resides in the leadership. Stated more concisely, is North Korea primarily and extension of Kim Jong-Il or is it an actual state – albeit an abnormal one. Since both of these questions are rather difficult to answer for any analyst, it is perhaps better to look at North Korea itself and the situation in which it finds itself.

The launch of 7 mid to long range ballistic missiles represents just the most recent show of brinkmanship for a country that has a long history of brinkmanship. In fact, this missile launch is not extraordinary because it took place, as a similar show of force occurred in 1998 when the Hermit Kingdom launched a volley of missiles over the northern Japanese islands, causes frantic responses form a now seriously endangered Japanese government. Similarly threatening actions and statements can be found in nearly any front of North Korean foreign policy. In their conflict with Japan over sanctions in response to failed efforts to resolve the ongoing abductions issue, North Korea stated that any such sanctions would be viewed as an act of war. Japan subsequently backed down. When it comes to normal North Korean announcements, war, destruction, annihilation, and a host of similarly ominous terms constantly fill their responses to any overt act against them. It seems that blustering and blowing and making it seem that the house might come down is simply the way that North Korea operates. And it seems that they have a number of reasons to be concerned.

North Korea currently is feeling the mounting weight of both external and internal pressure in a degree that the regime has never before experienced. There are a few reasons for this. For starters, frustration amongst the countries involved in the six party talks is perhaps at an all time high as last summers glimmer of hope in the form of a joint statement was immediately shot down by North Korean retractions and revised demands. Nothing except further stall tactics has taken place since. Secondly, North Korea’s ability to make money through its illegal operations has been sharply curtailed. More and more countries are becoming aware that even embassies can double as drug trafficking hubs and North Korean cargo ships also may be carrying enough drugs to finance the entire regime. Similarly, the severe US response to North Korean money laundering has cut off numerous venues for revenue and even turned North Korea’s partners in crime away from them. Reports point to US punitive efforts as a source of frustration as the North Korean economy has been stalling again.

On top of this is the food crisis. Though, it may be argued, North Korea never truly recovered from the crisis of the mid 1990s, Pyongyang saw it fit to force out international aid organizations that were responsible for feeding nearly a third of the country’s population. Among those groups was the World Food Program (note: the United States was the single largest donor through the WFP and it is interesting to mention that the WFP still described its efforts in North Korea as “emergency relief” even after nearly ten years of work) [see WFP reports on donors and activites]. Most analyst saw this as a foolish move despite North Korean claims that its food distribution system was ready to get back up and running. On top of this, they continued to receive aid from both China and South Korea. However, neither country monitored the distribution of their aid with any vigor nor questioned North Korea when told they could not monitor its distribution. Despite the presence of Chinese and South Korean aid, it seems that famine may be rearing its head again and calls have gone out for the WFP to consider returning to North Korea. This fact brings us to our first target of North Korean threats.

next post - Victims and Targets

God Bless America

2006-07-16T04:30:00.000-04:00

For the fourth time in as many years, I spent Independence Day in a foreign country, nearly forgetting that the day had arrived. It isn’t that I don’t value what the day represents. I try to remember days like that. Others that are on the radar include December 11th, June 6th, and September 11th. I guess that I will just blame the lack of fireworks, or that I just fundamentally take for granted the blessing it is to be an American.

Unfortunately, for many, that blessing no longer is a badge of honor, but rather a mark oh shame. It has become something that people try to hide as if it were some giant, crimson ‘A’ emblazoned on their chest, evoking some terrible sin of which they are horribly ashamed. Honestly, reading articles and blogs with tones that disparaged the honorable occasion that July 4th ought to be was tremendously frustrating. Such comments do not reflect a greater understanding of our country’s current failings; they represent a complete lack of understanding in regards to our nation’s history. When we fail to respect and revere the celebration of American independence we show ourselves to lack any understanding of what America even means.

American democracy was never about being right; it was about having the system in place to make it right. This is the cost of freedom. When we allow ourselves to be free, we allow for the myriad despicable things that such freedom creates. Contemporary critics of America – not of Bush’s America, the critics of America as an idea – fail to recognize a fundamental truth. Governments, especially democracies, represent (or ought to represent) their citizens. Given how flawed and foolish we are as individuals, why is it any surprise that our governments are flawed and foolish? It isn’t perfect and it never will be. It isn’t supposed to be perfect. At best what we can hope for is the possibility that we can right our wrongs and correct ourselves when we find that the path we desire and the path we tread have ceased to converge. That is why America is beautiful.

Case and point: for a few years now, the existence of the Guantanamo Bay prison has been a point of heated debate. Whether it was right or wrong to create such a prison is not even the question – at one time, it seemed necessary to those making decisions. What is so very right and wonderful is that we debated its existence. We could criticize, attack and accuse the system that produced it and, as we found most recently, we could even eliminate (or begin to change) that which we saw as an aberration in the system. The cause of people who are viewed as enemies can find voice in our own courts and their rights defended against our own government. Where else is such change and debate as heated and as intertwined with the fate of a nation? And Guantanamo is not the only example.

Perhaps the most poignant example of the relentless nature of the American experiment was the civil rights movement. To many critics, both then and now, the injustices – which were unforgivably awful – represented a complete failure of the American democratic system. To support that line of thought is to miss what the Civil Rights movement accomplished. A minority group which was discriminated against and relegated to poverty and political weakness found in the system the means to inspire change. Martin Luther King did not struggle against American democracy; he struggle for it. That minority group was able to oppose and transform the majority. Hundreds of years worth of oppression fell to pieces (or at least began to crumble to the ground) as the product of a people who would no longer live without their portion of the American democratic tradition. This was not the low point of American democracy; it was American democracy in its purest form.

This July, wherever you find yourself, take a moment to remember what that tradition is that we hold so dear. Remember the leadership of Washington, the writings of Madison, and the vision of Jefferson. Remember the resolve of Lincoln, the hopefulness of Wilson, the compassion of Roosevelt, and the insurmountable courage of King. And remember that the crisis that we face are not indications of flaws or failures in the America that we have put our hope in, they are merely another opportunity for that America to show its incomparable capacity to overcome. The experiment continues. The dream is yet alive. God bless America.

Goodnight, and good luck.

Treasury Dept. Turns up the Heat

2006-04-11T15:43:00.000-04:00

Since the first announced punitive actions against North Korean money laundering counterfeiting the Treasury Dept has leveled heavy sanctions against the NK and companies linked to its illegal activities. Originally, this primarily involved Malaysian Banco Delta, but recently came to include a Swiss bank.

The scope of US pressure on NK began to cause South Koreans to worry about the possibility that full sanctions would be imposed and that this would include the Kaesong Development Park. The US Treasury Dept took enough time to reassure SK that no such thing would happen in the immediate future before they fired their next broadside against the lagging North Korean economy. Today, the US announced shipping sanctions that will make it illegal for American companies or individuals to employ or ship materials with NK vessels. The move will not have a large impact on US economic interactions with NK, as not many NK vessels dock in the US, but it is one more representation of the serious attitude Washington has taken in regards to state sponsored economic crimes. The act may also help cut down on the drug running as well.

Sanctions, as a whole, have emerged as a viable means of pressuring the NK government as many analysts believe the NK economy is feeling the full effect of such sanctions. That makes me think the recent announcement that NK military spending will remain on pace is more smoke and mirrors than actual truth. I don't know if they can even afford their army anymore. They never could afford their population.

This just isn't KJI's week

2006-03-26T17:52:00.000-05:00

According to some experts, Kim Jongil may be planning to wait out George Bush to begin engaging with international community. This is something a dictator who doesn't seek re-election and has no term limits can do. I wouldn't really call the pre-Bush policy very engaging and my take is that by "wait out" NK means wait until there is someone more likely to cave to KJI's rediculous demands. However, all may not be right in the North and some believe that NK can't afford to wait:

“The North believes it can survive to a certain degree by cozying up to China and getting support from the South through inter-Korean exchanges,” “Internal political issues delayed decision-making in the North,” [Prof. Ko Yu-hwan of Dongguk University] says. “But the country is at a critical juncture and must make important decisions now because the U.S. financial sanctions have dealt it a severe blow.”

Apparently, not only have the effects of sanctions been rather severe, there is a chance that things might progress further. A recent congressional report states that there is reason to believe criminal charges could be leveled at KJI himself.

The report says the U.S. may try to press criminal charges against the North Korean leader in a similar way to how it overthrew Manuel Noriega, the former Panamanian leader. Noriega stood trial in the U.S. on a number of charges including drug trafficking and was imprisoned in 1992

I would love to see how this might possibly be enforced. That and the Chinese and S. Korean leaderships may simply wet themselves if we do it. Japan would be rather unconcerned. Such charges would focus the direction of attack in the counterfeiting case directly on KJI after much speculation about how effective the sanctions have been.

An interesting side note that is related to the bad week KJI has been having. Kim Young-sam, former S. Korean president, fired a broadside of harsh criticism at NK.

"As long as (the North's leader) Kim Jong-il lives, there will be no true peace on the Korean Peninsula,"

Ouch. Evidently, he made the comment after viewing the musical Yodok which brings to life the plight of North Korean gulag victims. It is refreshing to see someone influential in Korea taking a stand on this topic. Kim also stated that NK was the "most despotic country." [also from Yonhap]. Kim has been a friend of LiNK and met with our team that was in S. Korea a few months back.

UNHCR Visits the Mainland

2006-03-24T18:26:00.000-05:00

Perhaps the most frustrating abuse of the human rigthts of North Koreans is the way that refugees are treated in China. Starving, desperate and worn, masses of these refugees seek shelter in China, whic is certainly not the freest of countries. There goal? Make some money on which to survive and, for the most daring, make it to South Korea.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees is responsible for seeing that refugees around the world are dealt with properly and not sent back to a situation where they will be mistreated. China, as a signatory to the UNHCR charter, continues to label Refugees as economic migrants and sends them back to NK.

This week, Antonio Guterres, the new High Commissioner (he replaced Ruud Lubbers, who quit after being accused of getting friendly with some of the women in his office) visited China. This was the first time in nine years that the UNHCR has sent someone to China. Guterres was kind enough to say something about the NK refugee issue:

the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees said on Thursday that even those North Koreans who crossed the border for purely economic reasons would be in grave danger if they were returned to their country and therefore need to be seen as refugees.

Such comments and criticisms, however, are lost on the Chinese if the UNHCR doesn't demand access to the refugees, which they won't ask for and China won't give them.

The Chinese version of the story is a wonderful read that glosses all bad and highlights the "good" (which is probably why the articles are all so short). According to Chinese state run news, China wants to help solve refugee problems.

In a meeting with visiting UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres, Tang said the Chinese government attaches great importance to the protection of refugees. It always fulfills its obligations with practical actions.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is what we call erroneous reporting. Apparently, the Chinese news didn't catch the part about the North Korean refugees. And, since they are such a prominent fixture of most respectable human rights naughty lists, i am inclined to believe they just cut anything mildly critical. Guterres doesn't figure prominantly in the articles, with little in terms of even vague paraphrase of anything he said.

In a slightly related note, China has launched their copy of the UN Refugee Handbook. I just hope someone actually takes it seriously. I wonder had badly edited it is. And, regardless, knowing the charter and protocol of the UNHCR hasn't stopped China in the past, why should it mean anything now? Looks like things aren't going to change for NK Refugees any time soon.

Let the Music Play

2006-03-23T12:21:00.000-05:00

Of the thousands of defectors, there is something deeply telling and rather triumphant about the story of one in particular. Kim Chul-woong, a former pianist with the State Symphony Orchestra in Pyongyang, left NK for the love of jazz. I feel his story is an important reminder about the veneer of communism. When one sees images of what look like relatively well-off, happy, engaged, and talented people taking part in the performance culture of Pyongyang, one must always remember that it is all one big facade. It is meant for us, the outside world, to keep us thinking that nothing is really as bad as it seems. Kim Chul-woong reminds us that even the little freedoms denied can push someone to something drastic:

"I liked jazz too much," Kim, 33, said in a recent interview at a coffee shop in northern Seoul. "I needed the freedom of music. I wanted to play jazz in front of an audience and imagined how great it would be."

Now Kim has his jazz and his audience and doesn't have to fear who might be coming to find him because the expression of his soul doesn't fall in step with the jackboot rhythm.

Destruction of the Pong Su

2006-03-23T12:09:00.000-05:00

Earlier today, the Australian Air Force destroyed the North Korean ship, Pong Su, made famous by its role as a drug running vessel. Recently, the North Korean crew were received 'not guilty' sentences, but the facts surrounding the vessel remain clear. The ship had anchored of shore in Australia where 150kg of heroin worth around $165 million was transfered to contacts waiting on shore. The heist was busted by Australian authorities and the cirmcutances of this case have proven to highlight illegal North Korean activities.

Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer: "North Korea has been involved in illicit drug trade. North Korea has been in-volved in illicit financial dealings and North Korea has been involved in the illicit trade in WMD (weapons of mass destruction) technology over quite some years."

The links have been a little too obvious and with the clearest of evidence implicating the North Korean government in the "Supernotes" scandal, few are going to take denials seriously. Downer further commented:

"It is appropriate that we publicly demonstrate our outrage at what has happened by sinking this ship,"

Well, at least there is one less drug ship in the North Korean merchant marine.

How Many North Koreans Could Live on $1300

2006-03-22T12:11:00.000-05:00

In what is the strangest news of the day, a small group of Koreans flew to Brussels, Belgium to protest the Freedom House conference on NK human rights. In what the demonstrators called typical Korean fashion, the protest attempted to draw attention to the why we shouldn't be trying to help North Koreans:

They denounced “U.S. hegemony” and demanded the U.S. Forces Korea leave the peninsula. “People here in Brussels rarely respond to what we say,” their spokesman complained. “It seems that they were taken by surprise as they have never seen protests of the kinds we are holding now.” He then addressed his fellow demonstrators in Korean, saying, “Comrades! I want you to be proud of showing the Korean way of assembling and protesting!”

Apparently, things haven't gone as well as the demonstrators were hoping. The public in Belgium has paid little attention and are more intrigued by the presence of such a zealous group of Koreans then they are worried (or even knowledgable) about the leftist agenda of the protest (i can't believe the guy called them comrades. who does that?). The quote that sums it up for me was this:

“This is a great festival,” a Belgian who gave his name as M. Belforge (62) said, "Are they a traditional Korean performance troupe?”

Yes, Mr. Belforge, that is correct. One could probably think of hundreds of better ways to spend the time wasted on an 6 man protest and the money they spent to fly there would have funded all of the LiNK Safe Haven shelters for more than a year. Just for a little perspective.

more [here]

Looming Humanitarian Crisis or That Didn’t Take Long

2006-03-22T12:06:00.001-05:00

Over the last couple weeks, N Korea seems to already have taken a step back from their earlier claims of self-sufficiency and have begun to ask for aid. This coming only months after the removal of the World Food Program and other foreign NGOs that had been feeding a sizable portion of their population. Seoul received a request for 150,000 tons of fertilizers and the UN WFP reported requests for food aid. Both groups quickly capitulated. Seoul obliged the North and has been going through the process of sending the fertilizers northward and the WFP drew up a $100mln aid package that is currently under review. Apparently this has ruffled some feathers in the US congress and Senator Brownback has written Amb. Bolton to see that he doesn’t let the WFP plan go through unless it is adequately monitored (ht: Korea Liberator). Another source of aid is a rice bank that S Korean farmers are setting up to send rice to NK. Korea Liberator has a better rundown of this here, but the gist seems to be that the farmers have set up a system that would sell surplus rice (not even give it away). And monitoring? Of course not.

So the question that needs to be asked, and about which we don’t have a clear conception, is what state the food distribution and food availability is in N Korea. One worry is that this reversal of direction on foreign aid (though certainly not complete) is evidence of a coming famine, or at least drastic shortage. For the sake of the N Korean people, let’s hope that isn’t the case.

Developing the US Policy on Refugees

2006-03-07T17:00:00.001-05:00

This news has been far too long in coming and hopefully will prove to be true.

Secretary of State Rice spoke at length concerning her confidence in Lefkowitz as the NKHR envoy and also pointed to coming changes. The State Department has taken heat over their slow reaction to the North Korea Freedom Act and how we still have yet to take in any NK refugees. This has become increasingly embarrassing as a handful of European nations (all without special legislation and spiffy envoys) accepted NK refugees over the last month and a report came out detailing how many NK refugees European nations have accepted in total. US Legislators have been clamoring for changes for some time (particularly those who were instrumental in the passage of the bill 3 years ago) and promises of change seem like they may finally be fulfilled. One report puts the number of refugees that could be accepted this year at 200. While not an astronomical number (certainly not on par with the 1400 that Seoul accepted last year) it is as many as Europe has accepted in total and would be a substantial step in the right direction. But, we will all have to wait and see how fully this pledge is carried out.

Cheerleaders?

2006-03-07T17:00:00.000-05:00

I am a little late on reporting this one, but what the heck.
Perhaps the strangest/saddest story to hit the wires in the last few weeks involved the most unlikely of people. A group of N. Korean cheerleaders who had accompanied their team to the Asia Games were reportedly jailed because they were ideologically compromised during their time out of the “Ministry of Truth’s” reach. This is a sad thought because they are reportedly bound for the camps, which adds a tragic tinge to the bizarre nature of this story.

Apparently, they don’t read the international news in S Korea. Days after the reported arrest of the NK cheer squad, S Korea proposed a joint cheer team for the World Cup this summer. Those lawmakers in Seoul have the worst.timing.on.earth.

US + India + Nuclear Power = North Korea?

2006-03-07T16:52:00.000-05:00

On the first leg of his South Asia tour, President Bush concluded a deal with India that will provide nuclear power to the large industrializing nation in an effort to ease its power needs (and some think in order to hem in China). The deal came under criticism almost immediately from all corners of the globe. Amidst that criticism, apparently everyone else missed that El Barradei warmly welcomed the idea. Bush has been on the defensive since the deal was signed (along with the UAE, he has been a deal making fiend lately). One of the obvious criticisms has been about the signal this sends to Iran and N Korea. They, on the surface, seem to be asking for the same thing we just gave to India…nuclear India.

While it certainly is valid that this might make them bitter (as if they weren’t already), claims that this treaty is destroying the Non-Proliferation Treaty lack sufficient support. North Korea itself was quick to point out a nuclear ‘double standard’ that they feel is unfairly biased against them. But there is a reason that this is different; India has not been in violation of the NPT recently (obviously, they creation and testing of their own bomb is a little troublesome) and certainly have a less troublesome recent history than NK does in regards to the NPT. Similarly, India represents a categorically different presence on the global political landscape. India and its troubled but growing democracy is a developing success story. N Korea is a contentious threat.

Another important thing to note, that no one else seems to have noticed at all, is that N Korea was handed the olive branch long before India was. The NK nuclear crisis cut off the construction of nuclear power plants in N. Korea. No one seems to remember that it was only in January that the KEDO team withdrew. I would fully agree with the cries of hypocrisy if, when Bush went to Pakistan, he had solidified a deal with Musharref to help Pakistan develop nuclear power plants. Given Pakistan’s recent history and A. Q. Khan’s antics, this didn’t happen. In my estimation, this isn’t quite as lopsided a diplomacy as some would have us think.

Interesting Tidbits

2006-03-07T16:51:00.000-05:00

A report in Yonhap puts the number of N. Korean Catholics at about 3,000.

There is a new British Ambassador in NK.

North Korea, like any country, doesn’t like people kidnapping their citizens, and that is just what they are claiming that NGOs are doing

Here is an interesting article on NK, and cartoons.

Just How Important are Sanctions

2006-02-17T01:39:00.000-05:00

Based on developments over the last few weeks, I am beginning to be convinced that the sanctions leveled at North Korea for its illicit production of fake US currency and general money laundering/illegal activities is having a deep impact. NK's breathing room continues to shrink as more Korean firms ceased interactions with banks suspected of being linked to NK money laundering activities. Added to that list of banks is Banco Delta Asia itself who, having been the focal point of US efforts to cut off NK's illicit activities, has pledged to cut off ties with NK. One would not be too far off to say that such action nearly qualifies as an admission to guilt.

On top of that, China has been applying pressure (atleast rhetorically). Earlier, China had publicly supported US accusations (along with Japan, which speaks volumes all by itself). According to reports, President Hu Jintao urged Kim Jong-il to cease money laundering operations.

KJI had his own piece to contribute to the conversation and reportedly admitted that he is concerned that sanctions might be severely undermining his regime. The report alleged that KJI is actually afraid that sanctions could cause collapse. Albeit, this report is a bit hard to verify, but the possibility must be considered, especially considering what measures NK has taken: attacking the US rhetorically, appealing for Japanese help, offering to aid in cracking down on global counterfeiting, and demands that S. Korea provide fertilizer aid.

South Korea has vacillated on the issue. They were the last to defend the US sanctions and then swiftly took back the support. US Ambassador to Korea has been a target in S. Korea ever since he labeled NK a "criminal regime". However, it seems that the S. Koreans weren't in the dark, but were actually hiding that they knew more than they were willing to admit. A recent change of tone seems to be not only a move to counteract bad press for their conspicuous silence on (and even defense of) N Korea's money laundering but also an attempt for Ban Ki-moon
to appear as a mature global politician so as to buffer his bid for UN Secratary General. Ban's pressure on N. Korea is the first time (that i have noticed) that a substantially high ranking official has made a demands on NK to discontinue "illegal activity".

According to the Bank of Korea, and seemingly in opposition to a possible KJI admission, these sanctions are not really having that big an effect. According to the report, sanctions and their effect on the NK economy is driving them further into the arms of the Chinese (I would argue that kicking out the World Food Program and all other humanitarian NGOs already had done a good job of making NK dependent on China - and Korea). However it doesn't seem that China remains the most willing partner. Their assessment of the situation, both in public and in "private", have been attempts to force NK to cut the bull. A WSJ article has the opposite assessment and notes that NK's economy has "ground to a halt". If money laundering was a significant source of income, the death of NK's hub with Banco Delta and the likely timidity this has produced in any other NK front companies has probably rocked the boat more than a little. However, we unfortunately don't know. Such is the nature of organized crime. For the US's part, they haven't moved and inch and want to see the plates before they stop the pressure.

This issue could reshape how North East Asia and the US deal with N. Korea in the future. If providing consistent and substantial pressure can prove successful, my hope is that it may become a tool (not necessarily standard operating procedure) in the US international relations arsenal on the Korean peninsula.

Japan and North Korea Meet

2006-02-17T01:36:00.000-05:00

Representatives from both countries sat down together for intense talks that addressed issues ranging from the abduction of Japanese citizens to the possibility of normalizing relations. The abductions issue [there is a great article on N. Korea's underground efforts to kidnap foreigners and force them to train N. Korea operatives in both culture and language here] had a session that lasted nine hours as Japan and N. Korea tried to come to a consensus. They ultimately failed to resolve anything.

The Japanese reaction was harsh. The Japanese government and people have been extremely mad about the abductions and nearly leveled sanctions on North Korea a few years back. However, N. Korean threats that such sanctions would be considered an act of war cooled the Japanese government's resolve despite consitent popular support for the sanctions. This time, at least increased pressure and possible sanctions are on the horizon. However, it is hard to imagine things getting much worse than they already are as Japan and N. Korea's trade reached its lowest level since 1977.

Muntarbhorn Sounds Off

2006-02-09T00:51:00.000-05:00

Vitit Muntarbhorn, UN Special Rapporteur for NK human rights, sounded off this week as he was in Korea and attending the Asian Human Rights Forum [AHRF]. He is one of my favorites in the NKHR world as he is often uncharacteristically outspoken for a UN official. This weeks topic? Making it clear where he stands on refugees:

"The international definition of refugees also covers those who don't leave the country of origin for persecution, but fear persecution upon return," he said.

"So you don't necessarily have to leave DPRK because of well- founded prosecution to become a refugee, but even if you didn't leave because of persecution, for example you left because of hunger but you fear persecution when sent back, you are also (a) refugee (from the) international perspective,"

Of course there is little the man can actually do given that NK will NEVER let him in for an inspection and the UN is almost as likely to ever try to do anything about it.

Muntarbhorn also moderated a session at the AHRF in which a handful of experts talked about issues mainly concerning human trafficking and the effects of famine. Here are some choice facts:

(Norma Kang Muico)said that about 40,000 North Korean children die of malnutrition and related diseases every year.

He said that North Korean women taking refuge in China are being sold to rural Chinese for 400-10,000 yuan [my note: 400 yuan= under $50].

There is also some good information on other issues that plague Asia in regards to human rights.

The Plight of N. Korean rights in S. Korea

2006-02-09T00:26:00.000-05:00

Lee Jong-seok has been going through a process (now, i need to admit that i am not a Korean politics scholar here) that seems to resemble our congressional approval of appointed officials. Lee was grilled, understandably due to a seemingly small yet important fact concerning his education:

The 48-year-old has an academic background linked to controversial figures such as Professors Song Du-yul and Kang Jeong-koo, both of whom created a stir with their allegedly pro-North Korean arguments and are heartily disliked by the conservatives.

Unfortunately, no matter whether he is fully a Kang Jeong-koo disciple or not, Lee has already shown his hand in regards to N. Korean human rights:

"But in terms of our North Korea policy of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, it is my judgment that publicly demanding an improvement in human rights conditions cannot come before pursuing a peace policy," he said.

This wasn't the lowest point for NKHR this week. A musical directed by a defector that showcases the hardships of prison camp life has been. The piece, dubbed "Yudok Story" has received official pressure because of the blunt way it confronts the reality of the NK prison camp system. Over half the funding has been cut in an attempt to strangle the production. This is, unfortunately, par for the course. Our [LiNK] office has often pointed to the S. Korean government's pressure on NKHR groups as a specifically discouraging part of Uri Dang policy. With that said, one can imagine that the last thing one the list (who am i kidding, it wasn't even on the list) for these officials visiting Pyongyang was human rights. *sigh*

The New Revolution?

2006-02-09T00:09:00.000-05:00

The single most interesting piece of news this week is perhaps the most vague and unclear and thus the most fun to speculate about. OFK has more on this.

The story broke a few days ago that clashes with border guards occured at multiple points along the NK-China border:

According to North Korean sources, on the night of January 28, a border guard in Onsong County, North Hamgyong Province, spotted several men crossing the Duman River from Kaishantun, China, and tried to arrest them. However, there was a scuffle between the border guard and the unidentified men, ending in the death of the guard who was stabbed 38 times.

My first thought was that 38 times seems an awful lot of stabs. What makes this interesting is that, though there are often incidents involving NK guards crossing over and causing trouble in China, nothing on the NK side has ever happened.

In the past, there have been cases of armed North Korean soldiers crossing the border into China and engaging in robbery...
...North Korean sources say that North Korean authorities consider this the work of a dissident organization composed mainly of defectors who are emulating the June 1937 Battle of Bocheonbo.

My first thought was that this had something to do with a group of soldier defectors who declared their own war on Kim Jong Il. It seems, from OFK's report that this is unlikely, but so little is known about this that anything goes. Keep your eyes peeled.

Supernotes Scandal Heats Up

2006-02-08T23:23:00.000-05:00

Sanctioning of Banco Delta, the hub of North Korean money laundering activities, has continued with little end in sight as the US continues to hold a hard line against NK's criminal actions. The Korea Exchange Bank, whose largest shareholder is an American corporation, broke off all dealings with Banco Delta in an effort to protect the banks investments. The pressure on BD has rendered it obsolete and the US is already warning NK about continuing their activities:

North Korea may be looking for banks to help it launder money and the United States is ready to take action if this happens, a senior U.S. Treasury Department official said Friday.

Shockingly, in an action contrary to all the signals that the S. Korean administration has been sending out, South Korean Ambassador to the US Lee Tae Sik criticized N Korea's actions:

"Such illicit activities are not acceptable," Lee said in a speech yesterday at a luncheon organized by the Korea Economic Institute in Washington. The North Koreans "should make their hands clean on this matter by unequivocally turning away from the illicit behavior once and for all."

Lee's comment is gutsy as it doesn't reflect recent South Korea policy on this issue. In fact, it seems that S. Korea is coming down with a political multiple personality disorder.

North Korea did not let this all pass by without responding. NK fired off one of the strangest salvos I've seen in a while by attacking US foreign policy. NK not only claimed that the US was a major cause of nuclear proliferation around the world, but apparently the US is planning to attack China as well. Though these don't seem the most pertinent of attacks (in the case of China it is demonstrably false), they are not without reason. When taken in conjunction with recent attempts by NK to solicit Japanese help to convince the US to drop the sanctions, it becomes apparent that this is more an issue of desperate political jockying. And why? It is probably a safe bet that NK is trying to gain any foothold they can before talks with the US later this month. As of now, things have not been all too comfortable for NK on this issue. This, of course, may say something about firm negotiations with NK. just maybe.

Worth a Moment of Your Time

2006-02-08T20:20:00.000-05:00

Here is a round up of articles that i won't fit in but are worth a gander:

The former USFK commander gives a parting assesment of the US-ROK Alliance.

North and South talk about their militaries.

The Canadians try to lend a helping hand, or at least one of their banks does.

Here is an interesting piece about N. Korea attempting to turn the South commie even after all these years.

Legislation is in the works to finally do more about the hundreds held captive by NK.

Reform and the Reformers

2006-02-02T01:38:00.000-05:00

Though not the first time that Kim Jong Il has been to the idustrial mechas of China, this trip is becoming especially interesting, at least for the pundits and news sources. While there are some who think that this is just the same old, same old or that the reforms that China experienced might not even be a possibility for N. Korea, there are those who see a shadow of turning in the old dictators swagger. I would normally trust OFK on this call, but this seems to be a bit different. NK's political situation is perhaps as tenous as it has ever been and then there is this bit of new information:

The return of Jang Song Taek to North Korea's ruling hierarchy indicates the reclusive nation will push for further economic cooperation with South Korea, officials and analysts in Seoul say.
Jang, once a symbol of North Korea's reforms, will be given the job of reviving the country's moribund economy, they say.

Now while I don't echo the enthusiasm or certainty expressed in the article, I do agree that this represents, as the IHT so aptly put it, a Rubicon for KJI, and one that, if crossed, will open up a very interesting chapter for the entire East Asian region - and, hopefully, for human rights.

NK on the World Stage

2006-02-02T01:16:00.000-05:00

It isn't as if North Korea's position on the world stage has ever been all that tenable, but it seems that things are slipping swiftly into unchartered and ever more menacing realms. For instance, that a nation's big international relations news is progress on negotiations with Burma for the strengthening of ties. Birds of a feather?

Similarly, it isn't always the best move to get caught with Iranian envoys who are in the nuclear weapon hotseat. It seems that N. Korea has gotten it down and nailed both wrong place and wrong time. NK has a history of selling this stuff and the US will likely not respond favorably if NK decides selling nuclear technology to Iran is a good idea:

The United States is also mounting a diplomatic offensive to get the message across, through China and South Korea, that a transfer of plutonium would cross a political red line.

And in the Alliance, things are still very twilight zone-esque as Japan confirms that they won't be sending aid into the North whereas Kim Dae Jung will be sending himself...only God knows why. Ok, that was cynical of me, but it is just like Governor Richardson going to NK because he thinks he can do what the world governments can't. Because being in New Mexico puts you on the pulse of NK issues.

Between the growing pressure from the six-party talks nations to stop committing international crimes and the potential for further political conflict from NK involvement in the growing tension over Iran's nuclear program, the possibility for volatility is rather high in my estimation.

Miscellany

2006-02-02T01:06:00.000-05:00

Some intersting articles spanning some varied, yet interesting topics.

A foreign report on how life in the North is about keeping up appearences.

Grain production does seem to be up, but is up from nothing really worth appluading?

An oldy but goody, title says it all: Worse Than 1984

These are the terrible things that you hope aren't true and if true will stop being true.

It seems that more people in S. Korea are realizing they can tell the North that treating people like excrement isn't cool.

Money Matters

2006-02-02T00:45:00.000-05:00

The development of the "Super Notes" scandal has continued to develop as the countries involved in the Six-party talks try to mend fences enough to get all sides back to the table. It seems that even North Korea is sensing the resolve of the US to stick to their guns on sanctions and have hinted that they might be willing to stop committing international crimes.

Hill said the North Koreans "indicated they would be prepared to subscribe to international norms with respect to money laundering and would want to cooperate internationally on these issues."
Hill, who has tried to convince Pyongyang the crackdown is a law enforcement matter unrelated to the six-party talks, refused to provide more details or say if the North's comments were a hopeful sign. We're not looking here for words. We're more interested in actions. We'd like to see this (illicit) activity cease," he said.

This admission is timely as the US is not only failing to back down (causing much official whinning in Cheong Wa Dae) but they are also ready to racthet up the pressure on the NK economy.

On top of this, there have been the recent admissions on the parts of Japan, China, and (albeit vaguely) S. Korea that the problem is substantial. Japan is even bringing the issue to the table in their upcoming bilateral talks in Beijing. I feel this could be a crucial turning point if the interantional community can see that drawing the line can actually work. This may change the way the International community (not including the Roh administration) addresses issues in N. Korea.

All the News You Can Use

2006-01-26T01:25:00.000-05:00

The Long Road for NK Refugees
The Korean government is right about one thing when they talk about the NK refugee situation: they take in the vast majority of refugees (almost 1400 last year). This is to the shame of the US State Department who still drags its feet on the refugee issue and has yet to set up a system to begin facilitating the acceptance of NK refugees. However, beyond the US and the Koreans, other nations are beginning to join in. The Norwegians (sorry, no link) allowed in a small number and just recently a group of defectors were allowed into Belgium. An unfortunate truth about the NK refugee situation is that reaching safe haven is not always a garauntee that things will be all sunshine and flowers. It is very hard for NKers to assimilate into a rather exclusivist S. Korean society, and on top of that NKers understandably carry a lot of baggage. The success stories are more anamolies than they are the norm. Luckily, there are compassionate groups that help out, educating, befriending and providing for NKers in an effort to afford them a brighter future.

Looks Like I Should be an Analyst
It seems that i was not the only one to recognize the link between Hu Jintao's message to Kim Jong-Il and Kim's visit to China's economic centers. After KJI returned to NK, there has been a flurry of guess work as to what the meetings will bring about. A return to the six-party talks? An admission to the money laundering charges? Or, what some analysts are predicting, a shift in NK policy to start following that of the "China Way" of reform. Now, we should all not jump to conclusions, but the possibility is there, and i would heartily welcome it.

NKHR On and Off the Agenda in SK
After earlier talk from within Korea about the need to change tactics on NKHR and recognizing the existence of abuses in NK, there has been a flurry of statements in the last week. It began with a S. Korean panel deciding to not make any judgment of NK human rights issues. This was followed Seoul Mayor and presidential hopeful Lee myung Bak making a few political statements, one of which called out the government for not doing anything about NKHR. Then, Chosun Ilbo came out with an editorial critcizing the way that Roh Moo Hyun's administration has "maneuvered to the sidelines" of the issue. This, as i take it, is not only refering to the actual move to not address NKHR as much as it is refering to the growing irrelevance on S. Korea in regards to the NKHR issue. The question is, will Roh do anything to save face on this issue in the international community (where he simply has none).

Crime Doesn't Pay
After China and Japan both confirmed the culpability of NK in the "Super Bill" scandal, the US Treasury Dept. sent officials to S. Korea to brief them on the situation (read: try to get them to stop being stoopid). Apparently, the briefing worked...to some extent. However, when the US asked that SK take measures to deal with the problem, it ended up causing a stir (note: the Chosun Ilbo's titles for both of those articles are simply rediculous. They are so one sided it is unbelievable.) Apparently, S. Korea doesn't like "meddling".

Links Galore

Getting involved (and a big LiNK shoutout)
That isn't quite minimum wage

And the Silver Medal goes to KJI

Always Stranger Than You Think

2006-01-17T17:26:00.000-05:00

It has been a whirlwind week and many of these stories are still in the midst of fully unfolding.

Death of KEDO
The development program that was the product of Clinton's agreed framework has finally met its brought suit against the US for intentionally ending the program. But a recent article points out that there were major flaws in the way that the framework was written up and that it had little hope for success from the beginning.

What the international community, namely the U.N. Security Council, should do is strengthen the IAEA's inspection authority, he argued.

The 1994 agreement with North Korea "sowed the seeds of the present potentially dangerous stalemate" because it allowed limits to IAEA inspections, according to Goldschmidt.

Needless to say, this is beating the horse we all can see is dead everytime S. Korea, N. Korea, Russia, China, Japan, and the US get together and produce their quota of hot air.

Follow the Traveling Dictator
Reports have been flying all over the place about Kim Jong-il's current trip to China. This has brought out a flurry of speculation as to the reason for the trip. As I mentioned in the last post, there is the possibility that the trip might have something to do with President Hu's comments about reforming NK in the "China Way." That this may be China's hope (or at least they are going through the motions like they care) can be seen by the plethora of economic/development/market sites that KJI has visited during his stay. But of course, the trip is likely also meant to jump start the stalled six way talks. The primary cause for the stall has been the US sanctions against NK because of a dirty little money laundering scheme. NK has denied any wrong doing, but the thin ice they may be treading in regards to China's patience can be seen in the Chinese support of the US's conclusions about the money laundering ring. That prolly was sufficient incentive for KJI to come all the way down to Beijing.

Getting Down to Business
I hope that this is not a lot of rhetoric to throw us off for the next few months. Lefkowitz, and Ambassador Vershbow for that matter, have been rather upfront about seeking the improvement of human rights in NK, so I am hopeful. Till the present date, S. Korea can easily claim to be the main recipient of NK refugees, though they had tried to slow the process down under Chung Dong Young. Norway recently allowed in a pair of refugees, calling on the US to live up to their laws (enumerated in the NK Human Rights Act). Insiders will point to internal struggles about exactly which road to take on the issue of refugees as the reason for the delay in allowing NK refugees into the states, but it seems that this may no longer be the case. I had heard from reliable sources that the excuse up til now had been a product of a lack of definition as to who NK refugees are and how they will be admitted and that the other reason was that the US didn't want to take in refugees who would otherwise go to S. Korea where they have a better chance of adapting, given that none speak English. If Lefkowitz can tackle this issue successfully, it will create a swell of confidence concerning not only his ability, but his resolve as well.

Other News

A Bio of new Unification Minister, Lee Jong-seok, is available for your perusal.
Sixty Minutes airs a section on North Korea, the description is available here
Chong Wa Dae is talking about, but probably doing little about, repatriating S. Korean citizens who had been kidnapped decades ago

NK in the News

2006-01-11T19:13:00.000-05:00

The last week or so has been a big one for North Korea in the news. I will hopefully be keeping a consistant (read: weekly) update on key issues connected to NK and of course human rights there. (appologies for the lack of citations...i am new to this. lost a lot of the links.)

WFP Calls it quits
Earlier in the year, based on what they claim is a good harvest (but which is actually due more to the amount of aid coming in, without the WFP observers, from S. Korea and China), the N. Korean government demanded that the WFP and other Western NGOs all leave by the end of the year. This even included European groups who usually aren't hit by as heavy an attack as are US groups. NK demanded a shift from humanitarian (emergency) aid to development aid. In compliance with the demands of the NK government, the WFP phased out their operations over the last few months and officially pulled out on the first of January. The WFP had been providing food to approximately 6.5 million N. Koreans. For more information on their operations in NK go here.

Kim Jong Il in China?
Rumors abound pointing to a visit by the often sedentary NK ruler to China. This seems to be a rare occasion as the NK ruler has only been out of the country on seven different occasions. The meeting most likely concerns the stall in the Six Party talks. (background: the US has sanctioned NK over a money laundering scheme and NK has cited this as the reason for not resuming the talks). However, I hope that it has more to do (though this is purely wishful thinking) with a little noticed comment made by President Hu Jintao during his visit to N. Korea:

In unusually direct language, Hu recommended the so-called Chinese Way of openness and reforms, but although North Korean leader Kim Jong-il offered polite praise of China's success, he stopped short of announcing any plans to emulate the country, leaving observers guessing what changes the North’s economic reforms will bring.

Though I am not a big fan of much that the Chinese government has done, the "Chinese Way" of reform has been utterly remarkable, especially when compared to most former Soviet and Block nations. It would be incredible if China took on the role of the reformer and pushed N. Korea to reform in a similar way to the Deng Xiaoping reforms. It wouldn't bring us the whole way, but it would be miles closer than today.

Changes in the Unification Ministry
Chung Dong-young, the former Unification Minister who had courted the wrath of every NKHR activist the world over has stepped down to pursue his presidential ambitions. This leaves room for the new minister, Lee Jong-seok, to begin sitting in the drivers seat of North-South relations. Given his position as a key advisor to Roh Moo-hyun over the last few years, one must wonder whether this will represent even a ripple of policy change. We'll see.

Defining Irony
In the most interesting twist I have ever seen, N. Korea decided to sue the S. Korean government over the treatment of POWs and dissidents who were recently returned to N. Korea. This is quite the claim given the nature of human rights in the NK and some other issues including, oh, abductions, money laundering, drug laundering, and some other not so commendable activities that N. Korea has adopted as standard operating proceedure. Thankfully (or else this would have confirmed for me that the world has gone crazy) some S. Koreans justly responded. S. Korea plans on ignoring both claims.

and that is your NK week. and then some.

Dangerous Practice

2005-12-02T10:50:00.000-05:00

One of the things everyone fears is that our legal system might get it wrong. that is why there seems to be such huge loopholes in criminal law sometimes because it is better, so the saying goes, that ten criminals go free if we can avoid sending one innocent man to jail. But it is one thing if someone is accidently, after being subjected to the full rigors of our judicial system, found guilty of a crime. quite another if that crime is forced upon him. Take for example a recent case (c/o BBC) in China:

Mr She, a former security guard, was arrested in 1994 and sentenced in 1998 to 15 years in jail for the murder of his wife, after a body was found.

But his wife reappeared in March, and Mr She's plight became one of the most glaring of many recent examples of failures in China's legal system.

Mr She said he had been tortured by police into making a false confession.

She's case is not an anomaly. It has been little secret that China still employs not only re-education through labor camps, but also torture. This system is not simply a product of the CCP's influence on Chinese law. Such practices were common all throughout the dynasties as a means of gathering confessions from accused persons. Those suspected of crimes were often subjected to any means the state believed necessary in order to bring about a solution to a crime. The more arbitrary nature of Chinese law is also not a new issue. In the past, Chinese law was always based more on principle (and can still be said to be similarly based) and it was by these principles (Confucian till the Republic, psuedo- Western Liberal principles until 1949, Communist class theory until 1980, development and stability [read: social harmony] until the present) that people were judged. The problem is the lact of rigorous codification and execution of law. The emphasis of principle makes it difficult to defend issues such as civil or human rights in China. The state's belief is that Social Harmony and economic development are a form of civil right (this definition gets kinda fuzzy when actually applied in China though) and therefore violators/disruptors of social harmony are a grave danger.

It is helpful to understand this and to note that it isn't a necessarily corrupt system. Again, lacking in rigor, but nor necessarily corrupt. The problem comes when one notices how Social Harmony and CCP control are synonymous. Out of that conundrum arises the worst of human/civil rights abuses and the lack of room for effective change.

United Nations 1, South Korea 0

2005-11-18T20:46:00.000-05:00

The UN General Assembly seems to have its head on straight today. The General Assembly voted on a resolution introduced by the EU. It was similar to the resolutions that have been voted on in the Human Rights Commission every year for the last three years and successfully passed. Today they passed the resolution before the entire assembly. i can only say that i am more than a little excited about this.

The assembly's social and humanitarian committee backed the EU-sponsored document in a 84-22 vote, with 62 abstentions - among them South Korea

I was impressed by how the difference in votes seemed more significant than i remember the votes in the UNHRC. And i don't just mean there were more of them; i mean the gap was proportionally larger (though there were a alarming number of abstentions)

Speaking of abstentions, sticking to form, South Korea abstained from the vote, as noted above. I wasn't surprised but i was still dissapointed by this. I thought that perhaps the GNP pressure would have perhaps done something to change this, but alas.

Its representative Shin Kak-soo said Seoul "shares the serious concerns of the international community regarding the human rights situation" in North Korea.

"At the same time, my government has other crucial objectives in our policy towards the DPRK (North Korea) which in our view are vital for peace and security in the Korean peninsular," Shin Kak-soo said.

Here is more coverage. and here as well.

on a positive note, the GNP has become more and more vocal about this issue in the Korean Assembly and has straight up called out the Uri party on this issue. this may be a political move, but on this one i am willing to be more utilitarian.

Fresh Start

2005-11-17T21:11:00.000-05:00

This represents a graduation of sorts. I figured that it was about to move away from xanga and, well, keep a real blog. Not that I am totally opposed to my xanga but it is more of a forum for keeping up with the happenings of one's life and that isn't quite what i am shooting for.

I ran across this article on Xinhuanet. i was a little surprised as i hadn't heard anything about this anywhere else and i was more surprised it wasn't as acerbic as i would have expected out of xinhua on a topic like this. It seems that there are some unhappy folks in the US Congress. So unhappy that they are willing to throw down:

The chief sponsors of a US Senate bill threatening China with a 27.5 percent tariff on its exports to the United States said on Wednesday they would delay a promised vote on the bill until March 31 at the latest, the Reuters reported.
Sen. Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, said he and Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, were hopeful that President George W. Bush's visit to China later this week would prompt China to take positive steps to revalue its currency.

Now two things. One, 27.5 % is a very large number. Second, Graham and Schumer aren't exactly ideological brothers. This reflects a general sentiment, it seems, in Congress as a whole.

We hope and pray that the Chinese will move. We don't want to dictate anything to the Chinese. We don't want to tell them how quickly they should move or to what degree, but we do need to see some more movement on something that just about everyone agrees ought to happen," Schumer said. Schumer and Graham unexpectedly won a procedural vote 67-33 on their bill early this year.

This is an issue that needs pressure from congress. in my opinion, the Chinese have been given economic reign to develop their production - which outstrips the rest of the world, hands down - while not having to give up much - like allowing American and European companies and banks to have at the financial market in China. China has also been quick to blow the WTO whistle on other countries, especially when it comes to the textile trade, but is very defensive about their own protectionism. Congress is merely seeking some parity.