Thursday, July 20, 2006

Assessing the North Korean Threat: Victims and Targets

The group of people who by far face the greatest danger from the North Korean regime is the very population of the country. Whether that danger takes the form of starvation given the horrendously stupid agricultural policies and even stupider distribution of economic resources (a huge portion of the North Korean budget goes to the military and weapons development), the threat of imprisonment for political crimes, or simply being the bullet in the gun that is the North Korean army that Kim Jong-Il is raring to discharge at his enemies in purely suicidal fashion, the North Korean people face incredible odds. No one will suffer more if we leave the regime alone; no one will suffer more if we confront the regime head on. This is the catch-22 of North Korea. How do you destroy a regime that is willing to sacrifice its own people?

The country that faces the gravest threat from the North Korean regime is, without question, South Korea. As much as clueless youths and completely ignorant politicians (insert the name of nearly any Uri party member here, especially Kim Won-Ung who may perhaps be the dumbest lawmaker in any country ever. I have NEVER seen more incompetence in a single interview) want to convey the fact that North Korea doesn’t want to attack the South, only hates the US and Japan, and if they do attack will only fire at US bases (courtesy of Kim Won-Ung), the fact of the matter is that North Korea holds South Korea hostage. The only reason that North Korean remains a communist nation and hasn’t been wiped off the map is due to it proximity to South Korea. Seoul lies within artillery range of North Korea and the destruction that North Korea’s army would wreak on the peninsula before US forces could destroy their fighting capabilities is incomprehensible. Thankfully, South Korea has made some steps in the right direction of late and looks to be cutting off their unmonitored aid to North Korea. However, Roh Moo-hyun and the current administration seem to lack any sense of direction in how to deal with North Korea and have rejected the idea of sanctions.

Japan feels perhaps as threatened as South Korea because they realize that North Korean missiles can reach their nation and that North Korea would need little reason to launch against Japan. This adds a little more clarity to Shinzo Abe’s comments on the possibility of a pre-emptive strike on North Korea. Combining North Korean recalcitrance with the vivid memories of what it is like to be attacked with nuclear weapons understandably has Japan on edge. So much so that they were the first to throw in their resolution against North Korea (including the drastic Chapter 7 invocation) and they are likely to be the first to levy sanctions against North Korea, which may include freezing the assets of groups in Japan that help finance North Korea. Japan has balked before, but it seems that – with the approval of the UN Security Council behind them – they won’t likely succumb to North Korean threats. Now, there are simply too many nations to threaten.

The United States faces little in terms of direct threats when it comes to North Korea. Even if their Taepodong 2 works as some expect it might (though the July 4th launch was certainly a poor showing) it would only be able to hit parts of Alaska and the bases in Guam. Bases in Okinawa and Seoul were always possible targets, but if these two were ever directly threatened, much more would already be at stake. The only real threat to the US comes in the form of our commitment to defend the interests of our allies. War on the peninsula poses a serious threat to the US (though certainly not as tragic a threat as South Korea faces). Thus, the real question of whether North Korea is a threat comes down to whether they are actually willing to wage a war.

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